Iran’s Nuclear Sites Will Be Hard To Dismantle, but Israel’s Missile Advantage Grows

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Israel’s recent attack on Iran was necessary due to the rapid acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program, which he described as an “immediate existential threat.” While Israel’s official justification—or casus belli—was to halt Iran’s nuclear advancements, Israel likely had broader strategic objectives in mind.

While Iran’s nuclear program has attracted international attention, it is Iran’s conventional missiles that have caused more damage in the past. For this reason, Israel’s attack was not just on Iran’s nuclear sites but on its missile bases—specifically aiming to prevent Iran from moving its missiles from storage to its launchpads. In addition, Israel struck components of Iran’s air defence network destroying dozens of radar stations and launchers.

Ultimately it is the damage inflicted on Iran’s conventional military capabilities that will prove to be the most consequential.

What are Iran’s nuclear capabilities?

Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons, but Israel estimated that it could generate the fissile material to produce eight nuclear weapon within two weeks. Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon claimed that Israel had obtained information that Iran had a secret program that included all the necessary parts to put together a bomb—an objective that was accelerated after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September of 2024, severely weakening Iran’s most powerful proxy.

To construct a nuclear bomb uranium needs to be enriched at 90%, and Iran has a growing stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60%. Iran’s nuclear program accelerated after the breakdown of the 2015 nuclear agreement which halted international inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities. In over a dozen locations across Iran, there are nuclear related activities, with its largest enrichment facility in Natanz, which Israel targeted in its recent attack.

Though Israel’s October 2024 strikes on Iran left it increasingly vulnerable as it lacks proper air defence around its main nuclear sites, most of Iran’s nuclear sites are underground. Causing meaningful damage to underground facilities requires significant power and intelligence on the exact hardening measures and layout of each site.

What are Iran’s conventional capabilities?

Though targeting Iran’s nuclear sites will be difficult, widening Israel’s superiority to Iran in air power is far more feasible. Israel has a much more modern air force, including F-351 stealth fighters and upgraded F-15s and F-16s, surveillance aircraft, and it has the capability to strike targets with greater precision.

In contrast, Iran’s air force is outdated and neglected. It has over 300 aircraft including American F-4s and F-5s, and Soviet-era MiG-29s, but its fleet were all purchased decades ago. Iran’s air defence network is particularly weak, with recent Israeli strikes penetrating these defences with little resistance. Israeli F-16s flew less than 50 miles outside of Tehran, and Iran was only able to bring in one MiG-29 to defend the capital. Rather than rely on updating its air force, Iran has prioritized stockpiling missiles.

Indeed, in the past Iran’s most effective way of targeting Israel was with its ballistic missiles. Reaching Israel requires medium range missiles that can reach more than 600 miles (1000 km), and Iran has a variety of these types of missiles that it acquired through cooperation with North Korea.

The U.S. estimated that Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East with an estimated 3000 ballistic missiles alongside an unknown number of cruise missiles. Some of the ballistic missiles in Iran’s arsenal include the Sejil, which can fly at speeds of more than 10,500 miles per hour and has a range of 1,550 miles (2000 km). Reportedly, the Sejil had been used by Hezbollah in attacks on Israel in October of 2024. Iran also claims to have developed a high precision and easily manoeuvrable hypersonic missile called the Fattah which can fly at lightning speeds, making it harder to intercept.

But many of these missiles were damaged by Israel’s June 13^th, attack. Furthermore only 2/3 of these missiles would have medium range capability to fly over 1,000 miles to strike Israel, and it’s not clear how many missiles would be ready to launch. Additionally, Iran would lose its deterrence power if it launched all its ballistic missiles, requiring it to not use up all its inventory in its response to Israel. The New York Times reported that Iran initially wanted to respond with 1000 missiles but only sent about 200.

Moreover, Israel has superior defence technology. With Israel’s Iron Dome, it possesses a multi-layered missile defence network that can intercept short range rockets, while David’s Sling and Arrow can counter medium and long-range threats, including rockets, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. These defence systems were put to the test in April of 2024 when Iran launched Operation True Promise in retaliation to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Yet despite involving over 170 drones and 150 cruise and ballistic missiles, the attack inflicted minimal damage to Israel and an overwhelming majority were shot down with coordination with Western allies.

In addition, when Iran attacked Israel in October of 2024 with approximately 150 ballistic missiles, most of these missiles were intercepted yet again. And though these missiles caused minimal damage, Israel’s recent attack on Iran was designed to further disable Iran’s missile launching capabilities. One of the sites Israel targeted on Friday was in Tabriz, Iran— a location used to launch Iran’s missile attacks on Israel in October of 2024.

With Iran’s conventional weapons taking a hit, it lacks the capacity to cause significant destruction to Israel. Instead, Iran has had a history of opting for smaller targeted missile raids against critical infrastructure to undermine stability in the region. Iran used proxies to dispatch drones at oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019, disrupting global oil supplies; launched ballistic missiles from Iranian territory at two US military bases in Iraq in 2020; and targeted Al Assad airbase in Iraq with ballistic missiles and rockets in January of 2024. These attacks were designed to disrupt, but incurred little lasting military damage. Iran’s most effective retaliation strategy is to focus on sabotage.

Halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains a challenge

The effort to halt Iran’s nuclear program remains a key priority for both the U.S. and Israel. While the Trump administration emphasized bilateral talks to address Tehran’s nuclear program and ambitions, Israel had little patience to wait and see how these negotiations would play out.

To justify Israel’s recent attack on Iran, Israel claimed to have intelligence that Iran was poised to equip its ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. But targeting nuclear facilities has only had limited success in the past. The June 1981 Israeli attack on a nuclear reactor in Iraq did some damage, but it also triggered the regime to more determined in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Though fully stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be unlikely, Israel has seized this opportunity to severely weaken Iran’s missile arsenal.