Odds, And How To Bet The Gauntlet Journalism Will Run

That the $2-million 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is blessed with talent is not the big worry this afternoon in Saratoga. Rather, it’s how to play this bristling field of eight warriors. Overnight at the Spa, as we read from the track odds below, the whole notion of a “top favorite” as such, is effectively dead.

Predictably, as the Belmont weekend oJournalism’s ultra-skinny status as the top faveslid out from under him while Sovereignty and Baeza’s prices came down. For however long it lasts after the windows open at the track later this morning, everybody’s sitting on the magic number of 7-2. It’s like watching a pod of circus elephants trying unsuccessfully to stand on the same little pedestal in the ring.

Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Live Odds (Morning Line)

1. Hill Road, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, Jr., 8-1, (10-1)
2. Sovereignty, William F. Mott, Junior Alvarado, 7-2, (2-1)
3. Rodriguez, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 9-2, (6-1)
4. Uncaged, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 14-1, (30-1)
5. Crudo, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 6-1, (15-1)
6. Baeza, John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat, 7-2, (4-1)
7. Journalism, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 7-2, (8-50
8. Heart of Honor, Jamie Osborne, Saffie Osborne, 30-1

(Source: NYRA, 6/7/2025)

Their prices may diverge slightly, this way or that, as the money wakes up out at the track, but the point is, the runners’ exceedingly high level of talent will not change, ergo, the prices won’t materially diverge. We’ll update the live odds as the windows open and the money starts to talk about how it feels out at the Spa later this morning, but bottom line, the money’s going to take us on a wearying micro-minature see-saw ride this afternoon. And after it all, there can well just permanently be three co-favorites as the gate slams open.

The further problem for players is, it’s not just the equine athletes that bristle with talent this year. Asked another way: How terrifying is “Big Money” Mike Smith?

And the answer to that is: darn terrifying. It’s axiomatic that, pretty much wherever you might go in Thoroughbred racing, including to Europe and the Middle East, if you have the misfortune to run against Smith — as the two co-favorite trainers William Mott (Sovereignty) or John Shirreffs (Baeza) will have in short order — the superb tactician Smith will deftly amplify the specific abilities of any mount he guides by orders of magnitude. He’s won the Belmont three times and stands tall in the history book of American and European racing as the jockey with the most Breeder Cup race wins, period, at a remarkable twenty-seven and counting.

So: What can Smith make Rodriguez do? The answer is simple, but very complex: Build a gate-to-wire scenario that is tough for the closers to overcome. It means that Smith has to help Rodriguez get away fast and clean, get up front, and then hone the pace in his favor so that, when the challenges begin, Rodriguez has enough gas in the tank to stand a good chance in the wild five-way battle royal between himself and Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza and Hill Road in the last two furlongs of a nine-furlong stakes. Todd Pletcher’s Crudo remains a thorn in all their sides and certainly retains the power to screw up any scenario that any more highly thought-of favorite would imagine.

By this we do not mean to predict that Rodriguez will win the Belmont. In fact, all of the highly tactical maneuvering above is a lot for Rodriguez to master in two short minutes while rocketing out in front of the crowd for a mile-and-a-quarter. But it’s also a hard, cold fact that New Mexico’s very own cowboy Bob Baffert has trained many a colt to do just that, and it’s another fact that Mike Smith, who won the Triple Crown for Baffert atop Justify in 2018, has time and again perfectly executed that exact ride.

For their part in the mad fray, the three main closers — Journalism, Sovereignty, and Baeza — will be attempting to build another sort of race for themselves. In fact they’ll be sitting — with minor exceptions, more or less where their connections would like them — up the backstretch and their battle will begin as they enter the far turn. Depending on how much fuel Umberto Rispoli (Journalism), Flavien Prat (Baeza) and Junior Alvarado (Sovereignty) feel like they have under them, somebody, or some constellation of somebodies, will have to move outside to gain footing — aka, position — for the stretch battle. It’s about a jockey’s choice of moment in the search for daylight. With this field, that will be especially tough.

Which is where Sovereignty’s exceedingly tough last two furlongs of the Kentucky Derby — through the mud — will come in handy for trainer William Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado. They have run this race before. That’s not meant to imply that Saratoga’s weather will be taking a turn for the worse at or before 7:04 p.m. Eastern, rather, it’s to say that in a complex, chess-like stretch battle of this high caliber, Sovereignty’s native toughness of mind is a tool that can carry him past Journalism for a second time.