UFC 316 Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Luque Vs. Holland

Two UFC welterweights coming off “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning victories open the UFC 316 pay-per-view fight card. In that contest, Vicente Luque faces Kevin Holland in a matchup that could have implications in the UFC’s 170-pound rankings.

We look at betting odds, line movement, preview, picks, and predictions for the Luque vs. Holland matchup on the UFC 316 fight card, which takes place at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday, June 7.

ForbesUFC Fight Card Schedule For June 2025: Including Two PPV CardsBy Trent Reinsmith

The main event of UFC 316 finds UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili against the man he took the title from, Sean O’Malley. Meanwhile, in the fight card’s co-main event, two-time women’s bantamweight champ Julianna Pena looks to do what she could not in her first title run, make a successful defense of her crown. Pena faces former two-time PFL lightweight tournament winner Kayla Harrison.

UFC 316 Fight Card: Vicente Luque Vs. Kevin Holland

Vicente Luque (23-10-1) enters UFC 316 as the No. 14 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings. The 33-year-old has been with the UFC since July 2015. Luque had some good winning streaks in his early days with the UFC, putting together winning runs of four fights, six fights, and four fights, but whenever he stepped up to face top-level competition, he faltered. The opponents who ended Luque’s winning runs were Leon Edwards, Stephen Thompson, and Belal Muhammad.

Luque is 2-2 since losing to Muhammad in 2022. He has wins over Rafael dos Anjos and Themba Gorimbo, while his losses have come via knockout against Geoff Neal and Joaquin Buckley. In his most recent outing, Luque earned a technical submission stoppage over Gorimbo. That fight took place in December.

Kevin Holland (27-13-0-1) was 12-3 when he earned his shot at a UFC contract on a Dana White’s Contender Series card in June 2018. Despite getting a win, UFC CEO Dana White did not offer Holland a contract.

However, Holland got the chance to fight for the UFC in August 2018 when Thiago Santos needed a short-notice opponent. Holland has been one of the more active UFC competitors since losing that contest by decision, fighting at middleweight and welterweight.

Holland followed the loss to Santos with an 8-1 run, a stretch that included five victories between May 2020 and December 2020. His last win of that run was a “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockout of ex-Strikeforce champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.

Holland’s career has been up-and-down since the highlight-reel win over Souza. He has a 5-7-0-1 record since then, never winning, or losing, more than two fights in a row.

Holland is 2-2 in his past four outings with a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk, a corner stoppage TKO loss to Roman Dolidze, a submission setback to Reinier de Ridder, and most recently, a decision win over Gunnar Nelson in March.

ForbesUFC 316 Fight Card: Early Prelims Odds, Picks And PredictionsBy Trent Reinsmith

UFC 316 Fight Card: Vicente Luque Vs. Kevin Holland Betting Odds and Line Movement

Luque opened as the +140 betting underdog to Holland, who came in as the -160 betting favorite. Those odds have shifted in Holland’s favor. Today, Holland is -225, while Luque is listed at +190.

*Odds via BetOnline

UFC 316 Fight Card Tale Of The Tape: Vicente Luque Vs. Kevin Holland

Vicente Luque

Age: 33
Height: 5’ 11”
Reach: 75”
Stance: Orthodox

Kevin Holland

Age: 32
Height: 6’3”
Reach: 81”
Stance: Orthodox

UFC 316 Fight Card Predictions And Picks: Vicente Luque Vs. Kevin Holland

Holland is a talented fighter, but the problem with Holland is his consistency. At points, it seems as if Holland is more interested in booking fights and earning a paycheck than he is interested in being competitive in those bouts. And while Luque has had his ups and downs, he seems to take his career more seriously than Holland.

Holland has an advantage in height and reach in this bout, and if he can use those strengths, he has a good chance of picking up the win. However, Luque is effective in spots where Holland struggles, mainly in takedown defense.

The betting pick in this bout is to go where there is value, and that is Luque to use his wrestling to grind out a decision win over Holland.

ForbesUFC 316 Fight Card: Prelims Odds, Picks And PredictionsBy Trent Reinsmith

We will have more on the UFC 316 Luque vs. Holland bout as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 316 pay-per-view card on fight night.