- CME FedWatch shows strong expectation of no rate cut this June.
- 97.8% probability of no change in Fed rate.
- Increased BTC self-custody; ETH net inflows noted.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will not change its rate in June 2025. Reflecting cautious market anticipation, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether experienced notable exchange and ETF flows.
The interest rate probability data from CME FedWatch has impacted key market actions, with traders adjusting their positions in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s pending decision.
Fed Holds Steady: Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Shifts
With just a 2.2% chance for a rate cut, market expectations are heavily skewed towards a no-change decision in the upcoming Fed policy meeting. Bitcoin reserves have reached new lows, indicating a shift towards self-custody in response to the probabilities. CME Group, FedWatch tool provider, “The market is overwhelmingly pricing in no change to the Fed funds rate for June, with a 97.8% probability of a hold.”
Ethereum spot ETFs reported substantial inflows, suggesting confidence in its stability relative to the current economic environment. As traders recalibrate their positions, there were significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, while Ethereum saw increased net inflows. This underlines a divergent market sentiment between these key cryptocurrencies. Additionally, network-wide liquidations soared to $208 million, with leveraged positions heavily unwound ahead of potential macroeconomic movements.
Market Data Overview
Did you know? The drastic decrease in Bitcoin exchange reserves mirrors historical patterns seen during macroeconomic uncertainties, where traders move assets to self-custody, signaling a risk-averse market sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $103,474.55, with a market cap of $2.06 trillion. The market dominance stands at 63.35%, while circulating supply is 19,872,468 BTC. Over the last 24 hours, the price fell by 1.98%, and the 24-hour trading volume reached $51.29 billion, as per CoinMarketCap.
According to insights from the Coincu research team, expected no-change in the Fed rate may foster short-term crypto market stability, yet a shift in long-term policies could renew volatility. Industry experts point out that traders’ adjustments to macroeconomic cues reflect ongoing adaptation to policy signals.
Source: https://coincu.com/340836-cme-fedwatch-no-rate-cut-june/