The Surprising St. Louis Cardinals Have Been Unstoppable In May

This was expected to be a tough year for the St. Louis Cardinals, as most people predicted them to finish below .500. Apparently, no one told the players they weren’t supposed to compete. The club has a 32-24 record and would claim a playoff spot if the season ended today.

The Cardinals have been on an incredible hot streak for most of the month of May. They were 14-19 through May 2, but have gone 18-5 since then. They’ve won five of their last six games after defeating the Baltimore Orioles last night, and they’ve outscored opponents by 45 runs through 56 games this season.

Their success is driven by their outstanding middle infielders. Second baseman Brendan Donovan’s .335 batting average is third in the National League, and he leads the league with 69 hits and 18 doubles. His 144 OPS+ indicates his total offense has been 44% better than the league average. Shortstop Masyn Winn is hitting .278/.357/.438 with a 122 OPS+ and highlight-reel defense.

Their starting rotation has been excellent, but in an unconventional way. Matthew Liberatore is a potential All-Star with a 2.73 who leads the league with a 3.4% walk rate and a 6.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Sonny Gray has a 3.55 FIP, but the other three starters are thriving despite low strikeout totals. Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante all have strikeout rates below 16%, while the league average is 22%. Nevertheless, they have ERAs of 3.90, 3.90, and 4.23.

There’s an element of luck involved with their strong pitching performances, including in the bullpen. Ryan Helsley, John King, and JoJo Romero all have ERAs of 3.72 or better despite WHIPs of 1.42 or worse. The Cardinals do have some legitimately excellent middle relievers though, including Kyle Leahy, Phil Maton, and Steven Matz.

Advanced metrics portend some regression for their pitching staff. They also have several holes in their lineup where they aren’t getting enough production, so they could look to add a bat or two before the trade deadline. A corner outfielder and a first baseman/designated hitter stand out as areas of need.

An important component of the Cardinals’ success has been health. The only player they have on the injured list at the moment is left-hander Zack Thompson, who isn’t an integral part of the pitching staff. He only threw 17 innings for them last season. Overall, they’ve lost less expected production due to injuries than any other team in MLB this year according to the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger.

The team’s outstanding start through the first two months of year was unexpected, not just by fans and pundits, but by their own front office. At the end of last season, the club announced they would spend the winter looking to shed veterans, reduce payroll, and get younger. They accomplished their financial goal, as their estimated competitive balance tax payroll of $164 million is $43.7 million lower than last year’s and the lowest the franchise has had since 2015.

They let first baseman Paul Goldschmidt walk away in free agency and spent much of the winter trying unsuccessfully to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. The only free agent they signed all offseason was reliever Phil Maton on a one-year, $2 million contract.

The St. Louis Cardinals might not be able to keep their hot start going all season—at least not without some major trade acquisitions—but they have established some building blocks in Donovan, Liberatore, and Winn. The future might not be as far away as it once seemed.