Bitcoin rally towards $200,000 by December

The path of Bitcoin towards the $200,000 rally by December is attracting more and more attention thanks to a recent analysis by ElonMoney, appreciated and disseminated by the research boutique Capriole Investments. 

This in-depth study combines six on-chain indicators and suggests that the target is not only possible but also supported by a solid statistical and historical foundation.

Key indicators for a sustainable Bitcoin rally

The first parameter considered is the MVRV Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations the market value of Bitcoin exceeds its realized value. 

Currently, the score hovers just above 2, a position defined by ElonMoney as “neutral zone”, well away from the red overheating threshold. 

Historically, cycle peaks have only arrived with values higher than 7, highlighting that the price could also double without breaking historical balances. This reading therefore indicates the absence of an imminent bubble.

Another crucial lens of observation is the Energy Value Oscillator, which compares the price of Bitcoin with its theoretical value based on the network’s energy consumption. At the moment, this line of “fair value” is positioned close to $130,000, thus above the spot price. 

ElonMoney emphasizes that as long as the oscillator does not show a 100% premium compared to the energy value, talking about a market peak is premature.

In 2021, when Bitcoin reached its previous high, the premium exceeded 100% by a wide margin, even though the price was below $70,000. 

Projecting the model, the fair value could reach $150,000 by October; replicating those historical premiums, the price could fluctuate between $225,000 and $300,000.

The analysis of the derivatives market through the so-called Bitcoin Heater – a composition of indicators such as the perpetual swap funding, calendar spread, and options skew – provides further signals. 

The current reading hovers between 0.6 and 0.7. ElonMoney interprets these values as a market warming, not a boiling. To reach an explosive peak, this index must repeatedly exceed 0.9, a level reached only in conditions of maximum euphoria and extreme leverage.

The Macro Index Oscillator: signs of growth, not of exhaustion

The Macro Index Oscillator, which sums over forty different indicators, on-chain and macroeconomic, shows a reading of +0.7. This is a clear expansion, but far from the +3 recorded in 2021 before the bull peak. 

Various growth signals such as the increase in users, fees, and realized profits confirm a Bitcoin economy that is accelerating, not slowing down.

Capriole Investments uses its proprietary indicator, called Volume Summer, to measure the depth of liquidity in the spot market. 

The recent positive value of +75,000 units indicates a return of capital, but the typical “feverish green” of rallies driven by retail is still missing. In comparison, two months before the peak in April 2021, the value was double (+150,000), suggesting a dynamic but not euphoric market.

The last indicator is financial leverage, calculated through the ratio between total open interest and market capitalization, currently below 3.5%. ElonMoney highlights how this condition is “constructive but not explosive.” 

The market can indeed withstand further increases as long as speculators do not perceive a zero risk of decline. Only by exceeding the 5% ratio could the market show signs of danger, but for now leverage is considered a fuel for future growth.

The strategy and the timeline towards $200,000

Capriole Investments does not set an explicit price target, but enthusiastically shares the results of the analysis, reiterating that the target of $200,000 is real. The roadmap proposed by ElonMoney depends on the simultaneous behavior of all six indicators.

In other words, if the MVRV exceeds 7, the Energy Value premium reaches or exceeds 100%, the Bitcoin Heater reaches 1, and the open interest exceeds 5%, then the market will enter the distribution zone towards the end of the bull rally.

However, without this conjunction of extreme conditions, it is likely that the price discovery will continue in a gradual and sustained manner. 

ElonMoney concludes with a significant statement: “Bitcoin does not die of old age, but of overvaluation, and we are not there at all.”

The evidence gathered by ElonMoney and commented on by Capriole suggests a favorable market phase for Bitcoin until the end of the year, with still significant growth margins. 

On-chain and derivatives indicators emphasize that the current rally is supported by solid economic foundations and not by uncontrolled euphoria.

In this context, investors and observers must primarily monitor the signs of overheating of these six indicators to anticipate any reversals. 

The presence of increasing, but not excessive, liquidity, combined with contained leverage, creates a scenario in which Bitcoin can benefit from a significant price increase without risking sharp crashes.

Finally, the most important lesson from this analysis is that the future growth of Bitcoin will be driven by real market dynamics, not by speculative bulles. 

For those who follow the market, this represents an opportunity to understand the complexity of on-chain indicators and refine their investment strategies in an increasingly mature financial asset.