Why I’m Confident Oil Is Here To Stay

There’s a certain magic to drilling for oil. It’s hard to explain to someone who hasn’t experienced it in person, but there’s something romantic about the hunt, assembling a crew, getting the machinery moving, and, finally, getting a positive result. It’s exhilarating.

I am confident about oil and its future in our economy—but I’ve felt that magic, and not everyone has. In fact, I’m often greeted with quite a bit of skepticism on the topic. How could I possibly be so optimistic about a product like oil and where it’s going? Let’s talk about it.

Gasoline Isn’t Dead

There are a lot of things you can produce with oil, and the first thing everyone thinks of is gasoline. And, the theory goes, since the world is transitioning to electric cars pretty soon, there will be no need for gas, and therefore, no need for oil.

In this respect, they’re not necessarily wrong. The popularity of Tesla and their product lineup has helped EVs go mainstream, and that’s just in the US. Across the world, there are many countries that encourage the adoption of these new vehicles as part of a transition away from oil and gasoline.

But in 2025, we’re not there yet. According to the US Energy Information Administration, we may not be there for decades, either. They did a report in 2023 that said the following:

According to our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023), we project that electric vehicles (EVs), including both battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), will account for between 13% and 29% of new light-duty vehicle sales in the United States in 2050 and between 11% and 26% of on-road light-duty vehicle stocks.

When I read that, I see the other perspective. Assuming their projections are correct, that means in 2050, between 87 and 71 percent of new light-duty sales in the US will be of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE), and those will need gasoline and oil. That alone ensures a positive future for oil.

The Diesel Angle

There is a lot of potential for EVs to replace ICE-powered vehicles, yes. But when it comes to the larger ones, like the trains, semi trucks, and school buses that we see every day, I don’t think they’re going to be replaced anytime soon.

Those vehicles often run on diesel fuel, which is created from either biomass materials or crude oil. While many companies are converting to what’s called biodiesel, meaning a diesel fuel produced from biomass, there’s not enough of it to power the existing infrastructure. Currently, there is no widely available EV technology with the range required to replace those vehicles, and the few that do exist are prohibitively expensive.

This means the vehicles that take our kids to school, haul our trash away, and transport goods all across the world, all need diesel fuel to do their jobs. And for that, they need oil.

Today and Yesterday

While some are all-in on EVs, not everyone is prepared for that kind of change. It’s partially why hybrid vehicles have become so popular over the years. They give you the reliability you know from an ICE-powered vehicle, and a way to get the benefits of an EV. And those cars? They need oil for the engine, transmission, and other lubricants.

There’s also no switch that’s going to turn every vehicle on the road today into an EV. Do you ever drive by a house and see an older car or truck on the property? Car enthusiasts today collect vehicles from as far back as possible and fix them up to get back on the road. You can go to a car show any Saturday night and see rides from the 1920s still out and about. Are they driving every day? No, but people will still own and drive them for decades, which means oil will still be a part of our lives.

A Solid Investment

While the need for oil may go down over the years, there are still plenty of reasons to believe in the product. Yes, EVs will gain in popularity, but the existing market for heavy-duty vehicles isn’t going anywhere yet. And considering all the cars and trucks out there from decades ago that run on gasoline, there’s a big enough demand for oil that I think the product has a bright future.

Yes, eventually things will change, and maybe that will be in this century. But in my lifetime, I think oil is still a strong investment.