Poc at 21,315 holds the key to a rally or a breakdown

Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQM25) – Weekly Day-Trading Snapshot & Monday Playbook

5-Minute Chart with projected supply and demand zones, H4 Levels, VWAP & Volume Profile

1. Market Context

• Strong Weekly Base: The large gap on May 12 at 20,402 set the springboard for this week’s rally inside the rising regression channel (light cyan).
• Mid-Week Congestion: Price stalled and chopped between ~21,434 and 21,947 for two sessions, forming a micro consolidation just below the channel’s upper pitch.
• Volume Profile & VWAP: The POC (cyan line) around 21,371–21,315 has anchored value; VWAP mid-band (green) lies just below 21,300.

2. Key Levels

Immediate Resistance 21,434 – Recent mid-week swing high

Next Resistances 21,497 / 21,575 / 21,631 – 38.2%, 23.6%, 50 fibs of May 14–16 moves

H4 Resistances  21,557 / 21,806 / 22,209 / 22,458 – Major session pivots

POC / VWAP Mid  ~21,371–21,315 – Daily Value-Area Control

Immediate Support  21,315 – 61.8% retrace of Wednesday’s rise

Secondary Supports  21,169 / 21,077 – VWAP mid-band & 61.8% of May 12 gap

Lower Channel Base  ~21,024 – 127.2% extension & lower regression channel

H4 Supports 21,331 / 21,014 / 20,751 / 20,502 – Key 4-hour pivots

3. Bullish Scenario

1. Hold & Bounce POC (21,315 – 21,371):
   • Entry: Long on a clear rejection of 21,315 with a 5-min close above.
   • Targets: 21,434 → 21,497 → 21,575 → 21,631.
   • Stop: Below 21,300 (VWAP mid-band).
2. Break & Reclaim 21,434:
   • Entry: Aggressive breakout above this swing high on volume.
   • Targets: 21,575 → 21,631 → H4 zone at 21,806, then 22,209.
   • Stop: 21,400 (just under the breakout level).

4. Bearish Scenario

1. Fail at 21,434–21,497 Fib Zone:
   • Entry: Short on a reversal candle into this resistance band.
   • Targets: 21,371 → 21,315 → 21,169.
   • Stop: Above 21,515.
2. Break Below POC/VWAP (21,315):
   • Entry: Short on 5-min close beneath, confirming value shift.
   • Targets: 21,169 → 21,077 → 20,948 (78.6% fib) → channel base (~21,024).
   • Stop: Above 21,350.

5. Monday Execution Plan

• Pre-Market Alerts: Set alarms at 21,315 (POC), 21,434 (swing high) & 21,169 (VWAP band).
• Volume Confirmation: Favour trades that align with spikes at these pivots.
• Risk Management: 1% account risk per setup; trail stops on 2:1+ moves.
• Channel Respect: If price revisits the lower regression rail (~21,024) and holds, switch bias long for a channel-bound bounce.