Solana: Technical analysis on SOL

The sentiment across the entire crypto sector has improved following the approval of the Genius Act in the House, and Solana (SOL) benefits from a strong narrative as a high-performance Layer-1: the Firedancer validator client, now in public testing, promises over one million TPS, while the Stake-Weighted QoS is already rolling out. The fundamentals reflect this traction: the TVL DeFi has jumped from $7.5 billion to $9.6 billion (+28% in two weeks) and weekly DEX volumes have reached a record of $22.4 billion.

Spot Market Structure of Solana (SOL)

In the last 24 hours, the price of SOL has risen by 1.9%, trading between $166.8 and $174.5. On a monthly basis, the appreciation is 37%, and the May highs reach $184. The daily chart shows a cup-and-handle completed in mid-April, with 50 and 200-day moving averages in golden cross ($145 and $129). As long as the $161–$150 range holds, the structure remains bull, supported by rising highs and lows.

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Derivatives: contained leverage, growing long bias

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• – Volume futures: $14.2 billion (+17.7% day over day)
• – Open interest futures: $6.85 billion (+1.9%)
• – Funding rate OI-weighted: ~0.01% – slightly positive, indicating a moderate long inclination.
• – Aggregated Long/Short ratio: 0.98 (neutral); on Binance it reaches 2.41, indicating strong Asian retail exposure.

The growth of volumes exceeding that of the OI indicates the entry of new capital without excessive leverage, reducing the risk of a squeeze. The DEX volume weekly is a clear indicator of this dynamic.

On-chain flows and liquidity

The Netflow chart highlights a prevalence of outflow from exchanges since the beginning of March, indicating long-term accumulation. Deposit peaks correspond to local price tops, suggesting timely profit-taking. Liquidity is improving: on Coinbase, orders of 50k SOL result in slippage <0.30%.

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Future Catalysts

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• Firedancer mainnet (2H 2025): superior throughput and resilience → scaling narrative.
• New consensus scheme without vote-transaction (2025) that doubles the block-space.
• Possible approval of Spot-ETF Solana (October 2025): estimated probability 80–90%.
• Genius Act in the Senate (June 2025): regulatory clarity on SPL stablecoin → greater institutional appeal.

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Key Technical Levels

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Main risks on SOL

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• Network congestion during memecoin hype: fail-rate ↑, UX ↓.
• Regulatory overhang: potential rejection of ETF or legislative delays.
• High correlation with Bitcoin (β≈1.4): macro shocks could drag SOL.
• Leverage build-up: funding >0.05% (8h) would be the first warning sign.

Solana (SOL): what to consider

Solana presents a constructive technical-fundamental picture. The monthly rally of +37% is supported by accumulating spot volumes, moderate funding, and credible technological catalysts. As long as the 161 $ area holds, the base scenario anticipates an attempt to break at 200 $ in the coming weeks, with possible extensions towards 230–250 $ if the Genius Act passes and the memecoin/DeFi cycle continues. Below 150 $, however, the bull momentum would deteriorate, opening up to pull-backs at 140 $–130 $.

Disclaimer: this analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. It is recommended to always conduct your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately.