As Bitcoin continues to trade near its recent highs, on-chain indicators are painting a cautiously optimistic picture for the months ahead.
According to the information, two key metrics—MVRV-Z and Long-Term Holder (LTH) accumulation—suggest that the current cycle may still have significant upside potential.
MVRV-Z Indicator Points to Delayed Peak
Adler notes that selling pressure remains unusually muted, with the MVRV-Z score still far from its historic peak levels. This metric, which compares market value to realized value, typically spikes during cycle tops. However, current readings imply that a cycle peak may not materialize until fall 2025, giving investors time to ride the momentum without major disruptions—assuming no Black Swan event derails the trend.
The accompanying chart highlights a gradual rise toward upper pricing bands, with Bitcoin still trading well below the +3 to +4 standard deviation lines that have historically marked macro tops. This could indicate more room for price appreciation in the coming months.
Long-Term Holders Add 339K BTC Since April
Meanwhile, another critical on-chain trend is emerging: Long-Term Holders (LTH) have resumed accumulation in a big way. Since April 4, 2025, LTHs have added 339,000 BTC, pushing their total holdings to over 14.37 million BTC. This level of accumulation, marked by a return to green on the LTH net position change chart, typically reflects rising conviction among seasoned investors—and often precedes bullish price moves.
Given that LTHs tend to sell into strength during euphoric tops, their current buying behavior suggests we’re still in the mid-stages of the cycle, rather than near the end.
Conclusion: Calm Before the Surge?
With LTHs accumulating and MVRV-Z still far from historical extremes, the data aligns with a bull market continuation thesis—but one tempered by caution. Adler concludes with hope that no sudden Black Swan events disrupt the current trend, allowing time for a final wave of buyer momentum to play out through the rest of 2025.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-muted-selling-pressure-and-long-term-accumulation-signal-bullish-momentum-into-fall-2025/