New research from crypto analytics firm Alphractal suggests that Bitcoin’s explosive growth phases are becoming more subdued with each market cycle — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
In its latest report, the company notes that Bitcoin’s price historically surges to a multiple of its 2-year moving average (2Y SMA) during bull markets. However, those multiples have steadily declined over time, signaling that the asset is entering a more mature and less volatile phase.
Back in its early years, Bitcoin saw peak valuations reaching up to 15 times its 2Y SMA. That figure dropped to 10 in 2017, then slipped even further during the 2021 cycle, first to 5× and eventually to just 2.65×. In the most recent cycle, Bitcoin hasn’t surpassed that 2.65× threshold again — reinforcing the idea that returns are compressing, and the market is stabilizing.
Currently, Alphractal estimates that the 2Y SMA ×2.65 mark aligns with a Bitcoin price around $159,000, identifying it as a potential ceiling should momentum return in the near term.
Despite narrowing gains, analysts at Alphractal remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. “The opportunity to outperform the long-term average still exists,” the firm stated, noting that each cycle continues to demonstrate structural strength — even if the highs are less dramatic.
In short, Bitcoin may be growing up — and for long-term investors, that might be exactly what’s needed for wider adoption and enduring value.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain and fintech industries, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoins-growth-may-be-slowing-but-its-long-term-strength-remains-says-alphractal/