The once-aligned “debasement trade” — where investors hedge weakening fiat currencies by buying both gold and Bitcoin — has fractured in 2025, according to a new report from JPMorgan.
Analysts now say the two assets are locked in a zero-sum game, with capital flowing from one to the other rather than rising in tandem.
“Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was rising at the expense of BTC. Over the past three weeks, we’ve seen the opposite — Bitcoin gaining at the expense of gold,” wrote Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director at JPMorgan, in a note shared with The Block.
Gold Drops, Bitcoin Climbs
Since peaking on April 22, gold has fallen nearly 8%, while BTC has surged 18% over the same period. This divergence is also reflected in investor behavior:
- Gold ETFs have seen outflows.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs and crypto funds have recorded net inflows.
- Futures markets show rising Bitcoin positions and declining gold exposure.
- Earlier this year, the trend was reversed, with gold climbing as BTC lagged alongside other risk assets. But in recent weeks, that dynamic has flipped decisively.
Crypto-Specific Catalysts Driving Bitcoin’s Momentum
While some of Bitcoin’s rise stems from investors rotating out of gold, JPMorgan analysts emphasized that crypto-native catalysts are also fueling its outperformance.
“We expect the year-to-date zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin to extend through the remainder of the year,” the report said. “However, we are biased toward BTC upside in H2, driven by crypto-specific factors.”
These may include:
- Continued institutional adoption through ETFs
- A shift in monetary policy expectations
- Ongoing geopolitical and regulatory clarity around digital assets
As both assets continue to serve as inflation and fiat-debasement hedges, JPMorgan’s outlook suggests BTC may take the lead — especially if crypto-specific momentum continues to build.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-could-to-outperform-gold-according-to-jpmorgan/