Jayson Tatum’s Achilles Tear Shakes Up The NBA’s Eastern Conference Hierarchy

The Boston Celtics’ worst fears were confirmed Tuesday. Star forward Jayson Tatum did tear his right Achilles tendon in Monday’s Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks, putting his availability for the 2025-26 campaign in doubt.

The reigning NBA champions now find themselves one loss away from their title defense ending far earlier than expected. With a potential $500 million payroll looming next season, the Celtics may soon find themselves facing difficult questions about which key rotation players to move on from this summer.

Even prior to Tatum’s injury, ESPN’s Shams Charania revealed that the rest of the NBA was “bracing for some level of change to come to the Celtics” this offseason. He said the Celtics planned to explore “trade options” because “this iteration just is not gonna be sustainable” given their projected payroll in 2025-26.

It’s unclear which of their highly paid players the Celtics plan to explore trading this offseason and whether they can convince soon-to-be free-agent center Al Horford to return at a discount price. Either way, the Celtics now figure to be considerably worse next season with Tatum sidelined.

That creates an opportunity for another team to take advantage of the suddenly wide-open Eastern Conference.

It’s Anyone’s East

The Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers ran away from every other team in the East during the regular season this year. The Cavs finished with a conference-leading 64-18 record, but the Celtics weren’t far behind at 61-21.

Frankly, the Celtics have been running the East for the better part of the past decade. They’ve now made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons and have made six appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals over that span. They finally broke through and won a title last year, and they were one of the betting favorites to repeat all season.

Sportsbooks have yet to release championship odds for the 2025-26 campaign, but the Celtics figure to be far lower in the wake of Tatum’s injury than they were this year. That opens the door for other teams in the East to emerge as potential NBA Finals threats.

The Cavaliers should be right back in that mix despite their disappointing second-round loss to the Indiana Pacers. A number of key players played through injuries in that series, including Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, although unlike Tatum, they should all be back to full strength by the start of next season. The only concern is whether this loss makes them reconsider building around their core, particularly given some of the financial hurdles heading their way.

Since Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year this season, he’ll earn 30% of the salary cap next season once his extension begins rather than 25%. The Cavs are already projected to go soaring over the second apron even if they fill out the rest of their roster with minimum contracts this offseason, and that’s before considering whether they should re-sign Sixth Man of the Year finalist Ty Jerome and reserve wing Sam Merrill.

The Pacers are headed to their second straight Eastern Conference Finals, but they face some financial hurdles of their own this offseason. They’re currently projected to be $22 million below the luxury-tax line next year, and starting center Myles Turner is about to become an unrestricted free agent. Team sources told ESPN’s Brian Windhorst that the Pacers “absolutely want to keep Turner,” but they have “no plans to go into” the luxury tax next season. (They haven’t paid it since 2005, according to Windhorst.)

The Knicks, who are on the verge of sending the Celtics home for the summer, already have all of their key rotation players under contract next year. They also signed Jalen Brunson to a well-below-market extension last summer that should give them additional flexibility moving forward. However, they have Karl-Anthony Towns on a supermax deal and OG Anunoby on a near-max, so they’re still projected to be bumping up against the second apron next year, which will limit the ways they’re able to upgrade their roster.

The Milwaukee Bucks are still reeling from Damian Lillard’s Achilles injury, and star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo “is open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining in Milwaukee or playing elsewhere” for the first time in his career, according to Charania. Even if the Bucks convince him to stay in Milwaukee, Lillard’s injury submarined their title chances next season.

So, who stands to benefit from this potential power vacuum atop the East? The up-and-coming Detroit Pistons put a real scare into the Knicks in their first-round series and have a metric ton of second-round picks to dangle as trade bait. They’ll also get Jaden Ivey back from a season-ending fibula fracture next year, so internal growth is a legitimate possibility for them.

The Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks could also jostle for top-four seeds in the East next year. Both are likewise built around young stars and had critical injuries cause them to tumble down the standings this season (Jalen Suggs and Jalen Johnson, respectively). If they stay healthy and continue building on the promise they showed early in the year, either one could be a dark horse for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The Philadelphia 76ers might be the biggest wild card of all. They entered this past season as one of the championship favorites, but injuries to Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey submarined any chances they had of contending. They eventually embraced a youth movement and found a potential long-term keeper in Quentin Grimes, whom they acquired for Caleb Martin at the trade deadline.

The Sixers also lucked out during the 2025 NBA draft lottery on Monday. They entered the night with roughly a 64% chance of retaining their first-round pick and a 36% chance of conveying it to the Oklahoma City Thunder had it fallen out of the top six. After a brief scare, they jumped up and landed the No. 3 overall pick, which team president Daryl Morey said they plan to keep.

It’s rare for a rookie to meaningfully contribute to a win-now team, although Morey sounds enthusiastic about the top of this year’s draft. Either way, the Sixers were already poised to bounce back next season with better health. Add the No. 3 pick to the mix—or whatever they can get for it in a trade—and it’s entirely possible that the Sixers could be the favorite to emerge from the East at some point next season.

The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement was seemingly designed to encourage more parity throughout the league. If the Eastern Conference landscape in the wake of Tatum’s injury is any indication, the NBA appears to have accomplished that mission.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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