Polymarket Predicts 39% Chance of U.S. Recession by 2025 – Coincu

Polymarket’s prediction market reports a 39% probability of the U.S. entering a recession by 2025. This forecast follows a previous peak of 66% on March 2.

The decline in recession probability signals shifting market sentiment, with significant hedging activity observed.

Polymarket Forecast Shows Decreasing Recession Odds

Polymarket’s prediction, based on data from May 14, highlights a notable decrease in recession expectations since March. Earlier, the probability had reached its zenith at 66%, showing volatility in market outlook.

Changes in prediction probabilities occurred as trading volumes on Polymarket, specifically for the “U.S. recession in 2025” market, surpassed $5.31 million. This indicates heightened engagement by market participants keen on forecasting economic downturns. As noted by Polymarket Data Analysts, Polymarket, “As of May 13, 2025, the probability of a U.S. recession occurring in 2025 has dropped to 39%, down from a peak of 66% in early April.”

Market responses have varied, with attention from financial institutions. J.P. Morgan estimates a 45% likelihood of recession by 2025. Such figures reflect broader economic considerations beyond Polymarket’s digital insights.

Bitcoin Hits $103,637 as Economic Predictions Shift

Did you know? In 2008, before the global financial crisis, similar prediction markets showed recession odds fluctuating dramatically, hinting at collective market foresight.

The latest CoinMarketCap data places Bitcoin (BTC) at $103,637.34, reflecting a 0.87% gain over the past 24 hours. Its market cap has reached $2.06 trillion with dominance at 61.18%. In the last 30 days, Bitcoin registered a price increase of 22.28%.

According to Coincu’s research, fluctuations in recession probabilities could prompt monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Experts suggest intense market movements in prediction platforms like Polymarket might inspire regulation to enhance transparency and reliability.