NBA Draft Lottery May Reshape Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Landscape

The 2025 NBA draft lottery was bound to reshape the league on Monday night. Whichever team won the No. 1 overall pick would earn the right to select Duke forward Cooper Flagg, one of the most accomplished freshmen in college basketball history.

The Dallas Mavericks, who entered the lottery with only a 1.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, defied the odds and made the biggest jump in lottery history, according to ESPN Research. The San Antonio Spurs, who had the eighth-best odds of winning the No. 1 pick, jumped to No. 2, while the Philadelphia 76ers, who had the fifth-best odds, landed at No. 3.

The Mavericks figure to take Flagg and not look back. They can pair him with Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis to bolster their win-now window with that duo, but he also gives them a new long-term face of the franchise to build around after their controversial decision to flip Luka Dončić for Davis ahead of the February trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Spurs now might be the NBA’s biggest wild card heading into the offseason.

On the morning of the lottery, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that “for the first time in his career,” Milwaukee Bucks star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo “is open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining in Milwaukee or playing elsewhere.” Charania added that the two-time MVP “has not made any firm decisions on his Bucks future,” although he noted that Antetokounmpo’s agents and the Bucks “are expected to sit down during the offseason to discuss the future.”

The timing of that report likely was not coincidental. Now that the lottery order is set, teams can approach the Bucks about Antetokounmpo in earnest. Given how the lottery played out, the Spurs might have the inside track on a trade if the Bucks decide to move him this offseason.

The Giannis Trade Landscape

When Damian Lillard crumpled to the floor with a torn Achilles tendon in Game 4 of the Bucks’ first-round loss to the Indiana Pacers, it might have been the final nail in the coffin of Antetokounmpo’s tenure in Milwaukee. He has repeatedly made it clear in recent years that he’s open to leaving the Bucks once his title window closes with them.

“As long as we play and we approach the game every single day the right way and we all sacrifice for a common goal, I can see myself being with the Milwaukee Bucks for the rest of my career,” he said on the 48 Minutes podcast in 2023. But the moment I feel like people are not as committed as I am to get that golden thing in the back, I am not.”

The Bucks might not get anything out of Lillard, who’s set to earn north of $50 million next season, until 2026-27. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and Kevin Porter Jr. can all be free agents this offseason. The Bucks also don’t have control over their own first-round pick until 2031, which reduces their incentive to pursue a picks-and-prospects-heavy package if they do decide to trade Antetokounmpo and rebuild.

Luckily, a handful of teams across the league have the assets to keep them afloat, starting with the Spurs.

The Spurs were on the fringes of the play-in mix this season before they shut down star big man Victor Wembanyama due to deep vein thrombosis coming out of the All-Star break. In Wemby’s absence, 2024 No. 4 overall pick Stephon Castle took advantage of his expanded role and wound up winning the Rookie of the Year award. Castle finished his rookie campaign averaging 14.7 points, 4.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game, albeit while shooting only 42.8% overall and 28.5% from deep.

According to ESPN’s Jeremy Woo, San Antonio “has designs” on getting Wembanyama to the playoffs next season, “which means it will explore all avenues to improve its roster in the short term and be involved in the free-agent and trade market for established talent.” The Spurs could put together a package featuring a combination of the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft, Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes and multiple future first-round picks, including a fully unprotected 2027 first-rounder from the Atlanta Hawks.

The Spurs aren’t the only team that can put together a knock-your-socks-off offer for Antetokounmpo, though. The Houston Rockets, who received the No. 10 pick in this year’s lottery (via the Phoenix Suns), are also teeming with young, high-upside prospects and future draft picks, including a fully unprotected 2027 first-rounder from the Phoenix Suns.

Kelly Iko and Sam Amick of The Athletic reported Monday that “the idea of the ‘Greek Freak’ donning a Rockets jersey is seen as the most intriguing within the organization” compared to other possible trade targets (including Suns forward Kevin Durant) this offseason. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon recently reported that second-year wing Amen Thompson is “considered untouchable,” but the Rockets could offer any of Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard and Cam Whitmore along with future draft capital.

After this year, the Rockets have full control of all of their first-round picks moving forward. They also have a fully unprotected 2027 first-round pick from the Suns, a 2027 first-round swap with the Brooklyn Nets and a 2029 first-round pick from the Suns and/or Dallas Mavericks. Hypothetically, they could offer Şengün, Smith, Sheppard and multiple first-round picks for Antetokounmpo without even batting an eye.

Meanwhile, the lottery also might have hurt some teams’ chances of landing Antetokounmpo. The New Orleans Pelicans, who entered the night with the fourth-best odds of landing the No. 1 pick, slid all the way to No. 7. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who would have received the Sixers’ first-round pick had it slipped outside of the top six, were left empty-handed.

The Pelicans have control over the Bucks’ first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, so the Bucks might want to loop them into an Antetokounmpo trade even if they don’t send him there. Had the Pelicans jumped up in the lottery, they could have offered this year’s pick, the Bucks’ next two picks back and Zion Williamson. The No. 7 pick should still have value, but not nearly as much as the rights to Flagg or Harper would have.

The Thunder may be the only team in the Giannis mix that’s still alive in the playoffs. They might decide to stand pat depending on how they fare throughout the rest of their postseason run, but they also have the deepest asset pool in the NBA. Had they landed a mid-lottery pick in this year’s draft courtesy of the Sixers, that would have only sweetened their potential package for Antetokounmpo. An offer built around that pick and one of Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren would have been hard for any other team to top.

The Bucks should still be in line for a record-setting haul if they decide to trade Antetokounmpo this offseason. He has two guaranteed years left on his contract, and he’s finished in the top seven of MVP voting for nine straight seasons. The two-time MVP, one-time Defensive Player of the Year and one-time champion is on the wrong side of 30, but he’s fresh off his third straight year with at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and five assists per game.

After seeing how the lottery played out, the Bucks now have a much firmer grasp on the potential landscape for Antetokounmpo if they do decide to trade him this offseason. If the Spurs are willing to dangle the pick that should become Harper, that might make them the early favorite to land the Greek Freak.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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