Liquidity Window Confirmed — Bitcoin Hits $100K Again, What’s Next?

HTX DeepThink is a flagship market insights column created by HTX, dedicated to exploring global macro trends, key economic indicators, and major developments across the crypto industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX DeepThink aims to help readers “Find Order in Chaos.”

Last week, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) from HTX Research accurately predicted that a liquidity window could emerge in early May, driving capital back into crypto markets. On May 8, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 for the first time in three months—confirming her forecast. How long can this momentum last, and what are the implications of the latest U.S.-UK tariff deal? In this bonus update, Chloe provides fresh analysis of the evolving landscape.

UK–U.S. Tariff Agreement Signals Reduced Risk and Policy Support

On May 8, the United Kingdom and the United States reached a breakthrough trade agreement. The UK agreed to open its agricultural market for U.S. products in exchange for a reduction in U.S. tariffs on British automobile exports. Tariffs on British steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. were reduced to zero, while a 10% “reciprocal tariff” remains in place on U.S. imports. 

Although the UK already runs a trade deficit with the U.S. and the economic impact of the deal may be modest, it signals a willingness by the U.S. government to re-engage diplomatically and release policy tailwinds. 

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick further indicated that the next major trade agreement could involve a large Asian economy, suggesting that the U.S. administration is preparing to offer structural trade incentives on a broader geopolitical scale.

Bitcoin’s Market Structure Shifts From Speculative Trading to Institutional Capital Allocation

Concurrently with these easing policy conditions, Bitcoin’s capital flow dynamics have undergone a fundamental shift. Over the past three weeks, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded substantial net inflows totaling $5.3 billion——the highest quarterly inflow since their launch. 

Notably, this increase has been driven by institutional participants, including the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, the Swiss National Bank (via MicroStrategy equity purchases), and increased allocations by BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. This signals a structural transition in Bitcoin’s pricing logic—moving from short-term, volatility-driven speculation towards long-term capital allocation. BTC is evolving beyond  a high-risk asset; it is gradually forming an independent capital ecosystem, increasingly viewed by institutional investors as a “supra-sovereign asset”—somewhere between gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Bitcoin Volatility Remains Contained; Market Awaits Macroeconomic Catalysts

Despite BTC’s recent rally to $100,000, the market has not yet exhibited signs of speculative exuberance. Implied volatility (IV) in Bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, far below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 U.S. presidential election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has repeatedly failed to break above 4.60%, now hovering around 4.40%, which remains a neutral-to-supportive zone for risk assets. 

Overall, as long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger.

Hidden Risk: Breakdown in China–U.S. and EU–U.S. Trade Talks Could Reignite Tariff Battles

Nevertheless, investors should remain vigilant about geopolitical risk. While U.S. negotiations with China and the EU are ongoing, significant unresolved tensions persist—particularly over tariffs, export controls, and industrial subsidies. 

President Trump has explicitly stated he has no intention of lowering the current 145% tariff on Chinese goods as a prerequisite for restarting trade negotiations. Meanwhile, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič warned that if discussions with the U.S. fail, the EU is prepared to launch retaliatory tariffs, potentially targeting up to €100 billion worth of American goods. 

A breakdown in these negotiations could lead to the re-imposition of aggressive tariffs, reigniting global trade friction. This would likely dampen investor sentiment and place renewed pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. As such, the hidden risk of renewed tariff wars remains a key macro variable that should be incorporated into all forward-looking risk assessments.

*The above content is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.