Is the price of Bitcoin close to a new peak?

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin returned to nearly reach $100,000. It hadn’t happened since February 21. 

The rise was triggered by an official statement by Donald Trump, according to which a trade agreement with a major country will be announced today. 

However, there are some indicators that suggest that this rebound might have brought the price of BTC dangerously close to a local peak. 

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The local peak of the Bitcoin price

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According to a recent post by the analyst Kripto Mevsimi published on the CryptoQuant blog, since Bitcoin investors are already taking profits aggressively, there is a risk that its price is approaching a local peak.

The analyst states that the net profit realized at 7 days (7DMA) of Bitcoin has remained strongly positive since the beginning of 2024.

The chart that was posted shows how the local peak of 7DMA was reached in November 2024, when the price of BTC surged past $90,000, with a second lower peak in December, when it recorded the all-time high at $108,000. In January, Bitcoin then recorded a new all-time high at $109,000, and then it fell.

Subsequently, the 7DMA had then fallen, but starting from the end of April it began to rise again, even though it remained well below the peak of November. 

However, this suggests that it could be heading towards a new local peak, and that this peak could lead to a new local peak also concerning the price of Bitcoin. 

The fact is that, as Mevsimi highlights, profit-taking on Bitcoin is still aggressive, meaning high, even if not yet like in November-December 2024. 

The analyst writes: 

“If we look back at similar cycles (for example, 2021), this phase has often preceded a local peak or a sharp correction, especially when profit-taking has remained high and ongoing”. 

However, he then adds that all this does not yet indicate a complete macro top, but only indicates a local caution zone. Furthermore, he suggests that an increase in short-term volatility could occur. 

The differences with past cycles

However, there are some differences compared to the past. 

First of all, as Mevsimi himself points out, with the launch of the spot BTC ETFs in January 2024, the market structure has changed, however, the psychology of investors has remained the same. Therefore, their behavior could be the same, even if on a larger scale. 

The second difference is that the macro-economic and global framework in 2021 was completely different. Perhaps from this point of view, greater similarities can be found with 2017, namely the first year of Donald Trump in the White House. 

The current situation for the price of Bitcoin

Regarding the financial markets on a global level, the current situation is one of perdurare di un momento di paura. 

It is clearly understood by observing the chart of the gold price, not only at all-time highs, but especially still within an ascending channel that has persisted since mid-December. 

In such a scenario, there is still no significant return of interest towards risk-on assets, even though in recent weeks they have shown an excellent rebound after the fall of March and April. 

Helping Bitcoin is certainly the weakening of the dollar, given that the Dollar Index (DXY) is still within a descending channel that has persisted since Trump took office at the White House in January. 

To tell the truth, for a couple of weeks there has also been a mini-rebound of the dollar, however, for now, it is such a contained rebound that it has not even managed to bring the trend of DXY out of the descending channel that has lasted for three and a half months. 

The advance on the times

However, by analyzing the trend of Bitcoin’s price in recent years, in relation to that of the Dollar Index, it is noted that the current pattern resembles that of the middle of last year. 

There is, however, a difference between the two patterns: the current one is faster. 

In fact, last year there were three months of strong rise (January, February, and March), followed by three months of stagnation and two of strong decline. 

This year, however, there were four months of strong rise (from October 2024 to January 2025), directly followed by three months of strong decline, meaning without the intermediate period of stasis. 

Last year, once the decline ended, there was a month of stagnation in September, while this year it seems that a rebound started immediately, once again skipping the stagnation period between the bull phase and the bear phase. 

It is possible that this difference is not due to the trend of Bitcoin’s price, but to that of the Dollar Index, given that it is moving much faster compared to last year, and with a much clearer and more continuous direction.

In other words, just as it has already happened in the past months, this kind of anticipation of the times in 2025 compared to 2024 might not be an anomaly, but just an effect of the more distinct and lasting movements of the dollar.