rates unchanged, Powell highlights inflation and unemployment risks

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing continued economic expansion, low unemployment, and persistent inflation.

The Federal Open Market Committee also reaffirmed its commitment to reducing its balance sheet by continuing the runoff of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed assets.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” the Fed said in its statement, noting that the labor market remains strong and inflation is still “somewhat elevated.” 

However, the Committee flagged increasing uncertainty in the economic outlook and said the risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment have grown.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed some volatility around the time of the announcement and is trading slightly above $96,000.

Future rates to be determined

While the Fed did not signal an imminent rate hike or cut, it emphasized that future adjustments to interest rates would depend on incoming data and evolving risks. 

Fed Chair Powell said the inflation outlook is improving, but tariff impacts are uncertain and the Fed will act quickly if needed, though timing remains unclear. Powell said the Fed sees encouraging inflation trends, will learn more about tariffs over time, and is ready to act quickly if needed, though the timeline remains uncertain.

The central bank reiterated its long-term targets of maximum employment and 2% inflation, adding that it is prepared to alter policy if new risks threaten those goals.

At its March meeting, the Fed had already announced a slowdown in its balance sheet reduction strategy, capping monthly redemptions of Treasury securities at $5 billion starting in June, while keeping the cap for mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion.

All voting members of the committee supported the decision, with Neel Kashkari participating as an alternate.