Jeff Dorman on BTC Price, ATH Timing

• Bitcoin nears ATH range with 70-day average timeline, but macro experts say this rally defies old cycles
• Jeff Dorman warns the 4-year crypto cycle model is fading as institutions hesitate to re-enter
• Market analysts expect higher prices but note retail and institutional sentiment are now misaligned

Bitcoin is trading stronger today, up over 3% near $96,800, but it’s hitting a tough spot trying to stay above the $97,000 mark. Experts note Bitcoin could face significant resistance around the $100,000 and $110,000 levels as it eyes future gains. 

This comes as the broader crypto market shows bullish signals, with most top 10 altcoins also in the green.

Bitcoin’s Path to a New All-Time High: How Soon?

Bitcoin’s all-time high was $109,358, set, back in January 2025, about 141 days ago. A macro analyst has observed that, on average, it takes about 211 days to reach a new all-time high. If that pattern continues, Bitcoin could be about 70 days away from making a new record.

“However, these are just averages, and I personally believe that the next ATH could be reached even sooner,” the analyst said. 

Related: Crypto Price Today: Is Today’s Data Confirming the Imminent Altseason?

Are Predictable Crypto Cycles Over? Jeff Dorman Weighs In

CIO of ARCA and crypto investor Jeff Dorman said that the idea of predictable 4-year crypto cycles is outdated. According to him, the market is now evolving into something more like traditional stock markets. There’s also a growing gap between retail and institutional investors.

Related: Gold vs Altcoins: Capital Shift Deepens Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Right now, everyday investors (retail) are buying the dip and showing optimism, while big institutions are still playing it safe. Instead of dramatic boom-and-bust cycles every few years, Dorman anticipates longer bull markets characterized by slow, steady price growth, punctuated by only short, sharp bear markets or price drops.

What’s Next for the Market? Dorman Outlines Two Scenarios

Dorman sees two possible paths ahead:

• Most Likely (80% chance): The current tension around tariffs and politics (especially under Trump’s policies) fades away. If this happens, the recent market dip will just be a temporary setback, similar to the COVID crash in 2020. In this case, he expects the market to continue to rise over the next 4–6 months.
• Less Likely (20% chance): The U.S. ends up in a real recession. But even if that’s coming, Dorman says we won’t know for sure for at least 6 to 12 months. Until then, he still expects prices to go up in the short term.