Despite Bitcoin holding strong above $96,000, sentiment across both Twitter and news media has dipped sharply into the negative zone, according to real-time analytics platform Alphractal.
The disconnect between price and emotion is raising eyebrows—and possibly pointing to another contrarian buying opportunity.
Alphractal’s latest sentiment charts, which analyze real-time social and media signals, show that daily sentiment is again turning bearish. When viewed through a 7-day average lens, this downtrend in sentiment becomes even more pronounced. Historically, such dips in sentiment—especially when price remains resilient—have preceded local Bitcoin bottoms and upside reversals.
“In nearly every case where sentiment turned extremely negative, Bitcoin formed a local bottom and rallied against the crowd’s emotions,” Alphacractal’s team noted.
Price ≠ Emotion: The Alpha in Asymmetry
One of the key takeaways from Alphractal’s long-term sentiment model (2021–2025) is that emotional extremes often fail to reflect price reality. In the 2022 bear market, for instance, negative sentiment persisted for months as Bitcoin declined. However, in mid-2023 and again in late 2024, deeply negative sentiment surprisingly coincided with strong bottoming formations, leading to explosive rallies.
The most recent chart (2024–2025) paints a similar picture: Bitcoin has risen sharply from sub-$30K levels to its current $96K range, yet crowd sentiment—on both Twitter and in news narratives—has failed to keep pace, remaining largely in disbelief. Green bars representing positive sentiment have thinned, while red negative sentiment bars are re-emerging, even as the price hovers near all-time highs.
Is This a Macro Disconnect or Market Mistrust?
There are several possible explanations for the divergence. It could stem from macroeconomic anxieties, regulatory overhang, or political tensions influencing broader risk sentiment. Or it may simply reflect the crypto market’s emotional fatigue following years of volatility.
But whatever the cause, Alphractal’s data suggests the crowd may once again be getting it wrong—setting the stage for a possible continued rally.
That said, Alphacractal also cautions that prolonged negative sentiment during bear phases—like in 2022—did not immediately lead to recoveries. This means timing is key, and overly simplistic contrarian plays can backfire without a broader, multi-indicator perspective.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/sentiment-tanks-as-bitcoin-trades-above-96k-is-the-crowd-wrong-again/