XRP Price Prediction: Will XRP Lose the $2 Support or Reclaim $3 as SEC Moves Fuel Ripple’s ETF Hopes?

As XRP continues its weeks-long consolidation around the $2.17 mark, market participants are closely watching whether the cryptocurrency will reclaim higher ground near $3 or falter below the critical $2.05 support zone.

The tug-of-war between bullish optimism and regulatory headwinds has defined XRP’s recent price behavior, putting traders and investors on edge as the next big move appears imminent.

Stuck in a Triangle: XRP’s Price Tightens Ahead of Breakout

Over the past several weeks, XRP price action has remained trapped within a compressing triangle pattern on the daily chart. Despite several attempts, the token has failed to close above its descending trendline resistance, currently sitting near $2.26. According to recent technical readings, XRP’s immediate support lies between $2.05 and $2.10, with the resistance band near $2.26–$2.30 as the critical breakout threshold.

XRP’s current behavior appears increasingly influenced by the self-fulfilling patterns often observed in market cycle theories, rather than traditional technical analysis. Source: relevantHope55603 on TradingView

Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart reflect the ongoing indecision. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43, indicating a slightly bearish tone without suggesting oversold conditions. Meanwhile, XRP is trading below all its key exponential moving averages — the 50, 100, and 200 EMA levels — all clustered around $2.18–$2.19.

The Bollinger Bands have also tightened significantly, signaling that a larger move is on the horizon. “Failure to reclaim $2.20 may embolden sellers,” noted one analyst, “especially if support near $2.05 weakens. A decisive close below that could send XRP toward $1.88.”

XRP News: SEC Decision Could Spark Major ETF Momentum

While technicals point to consolidation, macro developments may soon tip the scale. Ripple XRP news has been dominated by speculation surrounding a potential XRP spot ETF in the United States. Investor hopes are rising following Brazil’s approval of an XRP ETF and Ripple’s recent expansion into the UAE.

The key catalyst lies in the upcoming SEC closed-door meeting on May 8. Market watchers speculate that the agency might drop its appeal of Judge Analisa Torres’ 2023 ruling that XRP is not a security in secondary market sales. This would effectively close a major chapter in the ongoing XRP lawsuit saga and open the path to an ETF approval.

“Should the SEC step back, it removes a key barrier to U.S.-based institutional adoption,” said crypto legal analyst Sarah Kim. “It would be the clearest sign yet that the XRP lawsuit chapter is coming to an end.”

XRP’s Strategic Supply Model Adds Stability

Unlike more speculative cryptocurrencies, XRP’s value is carefully managed through an orderly escrow release model. Ripple releases one billion XRP tokens per month, with unspent tokens returned to escrow. This structure ensures XRP value remains tethered to institutional liquidity needs.

XRP was trading at around $2.11, down 2.41% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP Liquid Index (XRPLX) via Brave New Coin

“If Ripple plans to spend $200 million using 100 million tokens, then each XRP must be worth at least $2 to maintain operational efficiency,” explained blockchain economist Daniel Vu. “It’s a floor, not a ceiling.”

This utility-based pricing model positions XRP less as a meme-driven asset and more as a Ripple currency price reflective of real-world adoption metrics.

Ripple Expands Global Reach Amid Legal Milestones

Beyond the U.S. regulatory scene, Ripple news continues to show strength on the global front. As of May 1, Ripple secured a full license from the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), allowing it to operate in the UAE. This follows years of building regional infrastructure in the Middle East, where 20% of Ripple’s customer base now resides.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted the firm’s global ambition, stating that “clarity abroad is fueling real use cases,” as Ripple strengthens its crypto footprint in cross-border remittances and trade corridors.

Additionally, Ripple’s growing ecosystem continues to evolve through innovations on the Ripple ledger, including efforts to tokenize real-world assets (RWAs), which could play a key role in institutional adoption.

Price Forecasts: Path to $3—or Even Higher?

Should Ripple gain legal clarity and ETF approval in the U.S., analysts believe a break above $2.50 could swiftly push XRP to retest $3 and possibly beyond. A bullish scenario, supported by long-term technicals and institutional interest, places XRP’s end-of-year target between $6.37 and $10. Some projections even extend as far as $30, assuming global adoption scales and the Ripple market continues to mature.

XRP trades between key levels with hidden bearish divergence, unless a breakout cancels it and signals an uptrend. Source: AdamIdris2 on TradingView

For now, XRP remains stuck in its narrowing range. Until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs, traders are bracing for increased volatility.

Looking Forward: XRP Hangs in the Balance

Whether XRP can reclaim the $3 mark or lose footing below $2 hinges on both technical resolution and regulatory developments. The SEC Ripple meeting on May 8 may prove pivotal—not just for the Ripple lawsuit update, but for unlocking institutional-grade products like ETFs.

With global operations expanding, strategic tokenomics in place, and legal clarity on the horizon, the stage is set for XRP to potentially rewrite its valuation story in 2025. As always, investors are advised to stay alert, as XRP’s next move may define its trajectory for the rest of the year.