Tron’s USDT supply hits ATH—So why is TRX still below $0.27?

• Long-term holders and USDT growth highlighted Tron’s improving fundamentals, but exchange flows remain mixed.
• TRX is still range-bound, with weak sentiment and resistance near $0.273 limiting upside potential.

Tron [TRX] is showing strong fundamental growth, with long-term holders surpassing 2.66 million and the USDT supply on the network reaching $71 billion, just shy of Ethereum’s $75 billion.

These trends highlight growing conviction in the Tron ecosystem and rising liquidity strength. 

However, despite these positive fundamentals, the token’s price has struggled to break out of its sideways consolidation range, signaling that other market forces are still at play.

Exchange activity remains cautious as profitable holders eye…

While fundamental growth has been notable, exchange flows offer a neutral-to-cautious outlook. At the time of writing, TRX saw $24.69 million in inflows against $18.44 million in outflows, suggesting mild sell-side pressure.

For a sustained rally to occur, consistent net outflows would need to signal investor accumulation away from exchanges. So far, that trend has not taken hold. 

Source: Coinglass

Besides, IntoTheBlock  data shows that 81.25% of TRX holders remain “in the money,” while only 12.23% are underwater. This high profitability level can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reflects strong historical buying levels and reduces panic selling. 

On the other hand, it increases the likelihood of profit-taking if the price rallies toward the upper resistance near $0.27.

Therefore, while investor positioning looks healthy, it may paradoxically suppress upside momentum as traders rush to secure gains.

Retail growth and fragile sentiment reveal…

Retail activity has surged, with transactions between $0 and $1 increasing by over 10%. Meanwhile, large transactions in the $1 million to $10 million range have jumped 568%, indicating significant high-value movement.

However, mid-tier transaction activity—ranging from $100 to $10,000—has declined, signaling weakness in this investor segment.

This uneven distribution suggests strong retail interest and isolated whale accumulation, but limited engagement across different investor tiers, which could restrict Tron’s price expansion.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Social metrics indicate that sentiment remains fragile. As of press time, Weighted Sentiment stood at -0.79 despite high positive mention volume (7.6), as negative sentiment (7.77) slightly outweighed it. 

This imbalance reflects a cautious tone among market participants. Without a strong shift toward consistent positive sentiment, any short-term rallies are likely to face skepticism.

TRX price remains trapped inside a sideways range 

TRX continues to consolidate inside a well-defined range between $0.2109 and $0.2734, with price action remaining largely directionless since February.

At the time of writing, TRX traded at $0.2481, down 0.30% in the last 24 hours, hovering just below the range high.

The Short-Term Moving Averages (9/21) have aligned tightly around the current price, offering no clear directional edge. However, the Parabolic SAR now positions above the price, flashing a potential reversal or continued consolidation signal.

Therefore, unless buyers drive a close above $0.2734 with volume, this indecision could persist, delaying any significant breakout attempt.

Source: TradingView

Conclusively, while Tron’s fundamentals are rapidly improving, with rising long-term holding, surging USDT activity, and strong profitability among holders, TRX remains stuck in a consolidation phase. 

Mixed exchange flows, declining mid-tier volumes, and cautious sentiment suggest that a breakout is not yet imminent.

For TRX to climb meaningfully, it must overcome resistance at $0.273 with stronger accumulation and broader market conviction.