Why Jalen Green May Be On His Way Out Of Houston After Loss To The Warriors

The Houston Rockets’ season came crashing to an unceremonious end Sunday. For the fifth time in the past 11 years, the Golden State Warriors knocked them out of the playoffs with a 103-89 road victory in Game 7 of their first-round series.

Although the Rockets didn’t advance to the Western Conference semifinals, this season still represented progress for them. Two years ago, they finished with only 22 wins. This year, they finished as the No. 2 seed in the West with a 52-30 record.

Now comes the tricky part for the Rockets. Getting back into the playoff mix was the first step, but continuing to build upon their steady progress and cementing themselves as a sustainable title contender is the next frontier.

All season long, the Rockets were adamant about letting their young core grow organically rather than pursuing quick-fix shortcuts. Prior to the Feb. 6 trade deadline, longtime NBA insider Marc Stein reported that Rockets officials wanted to see them “make a maiden trip to the playoffs and then make further evaluations” about their roster this offseason.

“To try to expedite the process by going out and getting one piece now is kind of doing a disservice to what we all talked about coming into it,” Rockets head coach Ime Udoka told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon ahead of the playoffs. “That’s our vision, and I think the playoffs this year will give us a good picture of that and put guys in different situations and high-pressure situations to see how they react to it.”

The loss to the Warriors should give the Rockets clarity in that regard. Second-year guard Amen Thompson grew increasingly comfortable as the series progressed and was arguably the Rockets’ best player by the end of it. The Warriors targeted All-Star center Alperen Şengün on defense, particularly in Game 7, but he led the Rockets in points (20.9), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.3) across the series.

The play of Jalen Green was far more concerning. He erupted for 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting (52.0%) in the Rockets’ Game 2 victory, but he combined for only 47 points on 16-of-53 shooting (30.2%) across the other six games. His playing time also dipped as the series went on, and he finished with only eight points , four rebounds and one assist in 30 minutes in the Game 7 loss.

“I don’t think I’ve played good at all, for real,” Green told reporters ahead of Game 6. “I had one game at the crib (Toyota Center), which was a pretty good game. But overall, I haven’t really been myself. But that’s okay. First time experience, I am not going to use that as an excuse or anything, but I’ve just gotta get back to being aggressive and stop overthinking.”

If Green’s playoff showing was an anomaly, the Rockets might be more willing to overlook it. However, it seemed more like a continuation of who he’s been throughout his career, which could cause them to consider moving on from him this offseason for the right price.

Green’s Murky Future

Green has been a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer throughout his four-year NBA career. He’s averaged at least 17 points per game every year thus far, but he has yet to shoot better than 42.6% from the field in any of those seasons.

Green did shoot a career-best 35.4% from three-point range (on a career-high 8.1 attempts per game) and 81.3% from the free-throw line this year. However, he has yet to post an above-league-average effective field-goal percentage or true shooting percentage in any season. This was also the first year that he had a PER above the league average and an offensive box plus/minus above 1.0.

Green has also been a clear negative on defense throughout his young career. He was in the 6th percentile or worse of defensive estimated plus/minus in each of his first three seasons and finished in the 26th percentile this year. At 6’4″ and 178 pounds with a 6’7.5″ wingspan, he may not have the size to harass larger 2-guards.

The Rockets might have tipped their hand about Green’s long-term future this past fall. They signed Şengün to a five-year, $185 million extension that is guaranteed through 2028-29, whereas they only gave Green a three-year, $105.3 million extension with a third-year player option. ESPN’s Shams Charania noted that Green was the first player ever to “successfully negotiate a 2-plus-1 rookie extension on a nine-figure deal,” but that could swing both ways.

Charania said the unique structure of Green’s deal gives him “the ability to increase his earning potential down the road.” But if the Rockets truly believed in him as a cornerstone to build around moving forward, they likely would have looked to sign him to a longer-term contract. Instead, they went with a shorter-term, lower-risk commitment—one that seems tailor-made to be included in a trade for a star.

If the Rockets decline their $44.9 million team option on Fred VanVleet, Şengün ($33.9 million) and Green ($33.3 million) will be their two highest-paid players next year. Dillon Brooks ($21.1 million) is their only other player earning more than $15 million. Unless they’re acquiring a star who’s still on his rookie contract, they’ll likely need to send out at least $35-40 million in salary in any trade. That leaves Şengün and Green as the obvious options.

Green is young enough—he turned 23 on Feb. 9—that another team could talk itself into him still having untapped upside. But if he has another inefficient season next year and again fails to rise to the occasion in the playoffs, though, his trade value might only decline. The Rockets might be able to get more for him now, with two fully guaranteed years left on his contract, than they would at this year’s trade deadline or next offseason.

The question is, who might they go after? And would those teams be interested in Green as part of the return for their star?

Heading into the playoffs, Charania said the Rockets and Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant have a “level of mutual interest” in joining forces. The Suns are all but guaranteed to trade Durant this offseason, but another 2-guard like Green is the last thing they need. They already have two combo guards in Devin Booker and Bradley Beal on massive max contracts. So, any trade for Durant involving Green would likely require the Rockets to find a third team to take on either Beal from Phoenix or Green.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with the Milwaukee Bucks is also coming back into question after their third straight first-round exit and Damian Lillard’s Achilles tear. The Rockets could put together a compelling package with Green as their main salary chip and the Suns’ unprotected first-round picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029 along with other picks and/or young prospects. The question is whether the Bucks would want to center their rebuild around Green, who’d be no guarantee to stay in Milwaukee after 2027.

Would the Miami Heat be interested in swapping Tyler Herro for Green and future picks? Might the Orlando Magic see Green as the solution to their half-court scoring woes? Could the Chicago Bulls take a flier on him if they’re scared of losing Coby White as a free agent in 2026? Would a rebuilding team such as the Charlotte Hornets or Utah Jazz have interest?

Either way, don’t be surprised if the Rockets explore the market for Green this offseason. His playoff flameout against the Warriors might have sent a clear signal to the Rockets about the viability of building around him as a long-term fixture.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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