Early Prelims Odds, Picks And Predictions

The UFC 315 pay-per-view card takes place this weekend in Montreal, Canada. While the top of the card features two UFC title fights, fight fans, especially Canadian fight fans, will want to tune in for the prelims and early prelims of the event, as more than half of the non-PPV bouts feature Canadian competitors. We look at the betting odds, line movement, predictions and picks for the three-fight early prelims of UFC 315.

The main event of the ESPN+ streaming PPV card finds UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad making his first defense of his title. Muhammad faces the No. 5 ranked Jack Della Maddalena in that contest. Meanwhile, in the UFC 315 co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko looks to start her second run as the women’s flyweight champion with a victory over the No. 2 ranked contender, Manon Fiorot.

The main card of UFC 315 streams on ESPN+ PPV following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

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UFC 315 Fight Card Early Prelims

Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva – Middleweight

Daniel Santos vs. Jeongyeong Lee – Featherweight

Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan – Bantamweight

UFC 315 Fight Card: Early Prelims Odds And Predictions – Marc-André Barriault Vs. Bruno Silva

Two middleweights looking for their first wins in a while face off at the top of the UFC 315 early prelims. In that scrap we have Marc-André Barriault (16-9-0-1) vs. Bruno Silva (23-12).

Barriault has been with the UFC since 2019. His best run with the promotion came between March 2021 and June 2023 when he went 5-2. He has never won more than two fights in a row with the UFC and enters UFC 315 on a three-fight losing skid, with knockout defeats in his past two outings.

Silva opened his UFC career with three knockout wins. Since then he has gone 1-6. Silva comes into UFC 315 on a four-fight losing skid.

The opening odds for Barriault vs. Silva saw Barriault as a -175 favorite over the +135 Silva. Those odds have tightened. Today, Barriault is listed at -145, while Silva is the +125 betting underdog.

You have two fighters in this contest who both have negative striking differentials, while that’s not great for the fighters, it could make for an entertaining fight for fans.

The betting pick is for Marc-Andre Barriault to win via decision.

UFC 315 Fight Card: Early Prelims Odds And Predictions: Daniel Santos Vs. Jeongyeong Lee

The second of three fights on the UFC 315 early prelims finds Daniel Santos (11-2) facing Jeongyeong Lee (11-2) at 145 pounds.

Santos dropped his first fight with the UFC, but he’s comes into UFC 315 on a two-fight winning streak. However, he has not fought since he defeated Johnny Munoz by decision in June 2033. He was most recently booked to face Davey Grant at bantamweight earlier this month, but failed to weigh in. He has had six UFC fights canceled since signing with the promotion.

Jeongyeong Lee earned his UFC contract with wins on the Road to UFC competition. Since then he is 2-1. He is coming off a July 2024 knockout loss to Hyder Amil.

The opening odds for this contest saw Santos at -175 and Lee at +135. Today, Santos is the -140 favorite over Lee, who is a +120 underdog.

Look for Santos to come out aggressive, but fade and for Lee to grind out a decision win.

UFC 315 Fight Card: Early Prelims Odds And Predictions: Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan

Opening the UFC 315 fight card is a bantamweight battle between a UFC veteran and a UFC newcomer. In that fight, Brad Katona (16-4) meets Bekzat Almakhan (11-2).

Katona is in his second stint with the UFC. He went 2-2 between 2018 and 2019, and then returned in 2023. He is 2-2 in his second run with the promotion, alternating wins and losses and most recently dropping a decision to Jean Matsumoto in October 2024.

Almakhan made his UFC debut in March 2024 against Umar Nurmagomedov, which is not the kind of test many fighters would welcome. Almakhan lost that fight by decision. He was on a nine-fight winning streak before that setback. Almakhan scored a knockdown early in that contest and then got outwrestled for the rest of the bout, but he only landed three significant strikes in the fight.

Almakhan opened as a -250 favorite over the +170 Katona, but those odds have tightened. Today, he is -175 and Katona is +150.

The betting pick is to go with the Canadian Katona for the value because Almakhan is unproven. Katona to win via decision.

UFC 315 Fight Card Main Event: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad (24-3-0-1) joined the UFC with a perfect 9-0 record. Not long after Muhammad claimed the Titan FC welterweight crown, the UFC came knocking. Muhammad signed with the promotion in 2016. At the time, he was 27. Bloody Elbow described him as, “In the cage he is largely a volume puncher, tending to work at the edges of range keeping a constant jab going and working behind it. He does well to work a kicking game in with his boxing, and puts some real power behind those kicks, but the focus is definitely on being a combination puncher. To that end, Muhammad does a good job feinting and changing rhythm, to keep his opponent from guessing his timing too easily.

“Muhammad uses his footwork well at range, circling away, maintaining distance and not walking himself into the pocket. As such he’s got pretty solid takedown defense. His focus is on accuracy and timing, and he rarely puts himself in a bad position to be taken down. Just because of his style, Muhammad hasn’t been much of a finisher to date in his MMA career, but he’s got the kind of style that’s great for breaking down opponents over time.”

Muhammad had a rough go of things in the UFC. He went 1-2 with his losses, a decision to Alan Jouban, and a knockout setback at the hands of Vicente Luque, bookending a TKO victory over Augusto Montaño. The loss to Jouban, Muhammad’s UFC debut, earned the combatants “Fight of the Night” honors.

After the loss to Luque, Muhammad won four straight decisions. That winning streak ended in 2019 when Geoff Neal topped Muhammad via decision. That loss is the most recent blemish on Muhammad’s record.

The 36-year-old is on a 10-0-0-1 run since then. Following the loss to Neal, Muhammad went 4-0. That run put him in the main event of UFC Vegas 21 opposite Leon Edwards. At the time, Edwards was the No. 3 competitor in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Muhammad checked in at No. 13. Edwards was a -270 betting favorite, while Muhammad was the +220 betting underdog.

The contest did not last long as Edwards poked Muhammad in the eye 18 seconds into the second round. The eye poke left Muhammad unable to continue, and the fight was ruled a no contest.

Over the next two years, Muhammad rang up five more victories against progressively tougher competition. He defeated Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Gilbert Burns during that run. The triumph over Burns earned Muhammad the No. 2 ranking in the division and a date with Edwards at UFC 304. Edwards was the reigning UFC welterweight champion at the time and was looking to make a third defense of that belt against Muhammad. Edwards was on a 12-fight unbeaten run when he stepped into the Octagon as the -265 favorite over the +215 Muhammad.

After the fight, which Muhammad won via decision, I wrote, “Belal Muhammad had the perfect game plan for Leon Edwards at UFC 304. Not only did he and his team have that strategy mapped out, but Muhammad seamlessly executed that plan of attack.

Muhammad used pressure and high-output striking to remove time and space from Edwards. That approach forced Edwards to retreat, and once Muhammad had his opponent’s back to the fence, he added his wrestling and ground control to the mix.

Edwards landed a decent percentage of his strikes at 66 percent, but the pressure from Muhammad limited his attempts to just 71 significant strikes. Edwards threw over 100 strikes in his two most recent bouts. Muhammad was especially effective in his wrestling, racking up nine takedowns on 13 attempts and picking up 12:02 of control time.

“With the win, Muhammad won the UFC welterweight title and extended his unbeaten streak to 11 fights. His last loss came in January 2019, when Geoff Neal defeated him via decision.”

Muhammad was booked to face Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, but a bone infection prevented Muhammad from competing on that card. With Rakhmonov unable to compete at UFC 314, the UFC opted to book Muhammad against Della Maddalena in Montreal.

Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) signed with the UFC in September 2021 following a decision win over Ange Loosa on a Dana White’s Contender Series card. Before the bout, UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby said of Della Maddalena, “I thinkDella Maddalena is probably the best prospect out of New Zealand or Australia at welterweight. He’s a big guy. He throws a ton of offense, and he’s really good in the clinch. The win over Loosa marked the first time Della Maddalena had won a fight via decision. He went into the bout on a run of nine stoppages (eight knockouts, one submission) after opening his professional career at 0-2 with two stoppage setbacks. Della Maddalena was the reigning and defending Eternal MMA welterweight titleholder heading into the DWCS card.

The Australian scrapper opened his official UFC run with four first-round stoppage wins and three “Performance of the Night” bonuses. He finished Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev, and Danny Roberts by knockout before stopping Randy Brown via submission.

In his first fight to go the distance under the UFC banner, Della Maddalena was in a “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning affair with Bassil Hafez, which Della Maddalena won via split decision. He followed that with another split decision, topping Kevin Holland in September 2023.

The 28-year-old got to finishing fights in his most recent outing, knocking out former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns in the third round of their UFC 299 meeting.

I wrote of Della Maddalena’s “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning stoppage, “Jack Della Maddalena was focused and poised throughout his matchup with the higher-ranked Gilbert Burns. The 27-year-old’s striking was on point throughout the fight. He used combinations and mixed up his targets well. Even when things were not going his way, thanks to Burns’ grappling skills, Della Maddalena never panicked. That composure led to him landing a knee in the third round after a scramble to get off the mat and setting up the ground strikes that finished the fight at the 3:43 mark of Round 3.

“Della Maddalena showed a gap in his overall skills in this fight, struggling with his defensive grappling, but at just 27, the Australian has time to shore up that weakness in the future.

“Look for Della Maddalena to jump up in the official UFC welterweight rankings following UFC 299, as he entered the fight at No. 11, and Burns was No. 4. He is now 7-0 in the UFC and 17-2 as a pro.

“Also, it must be noted, that Burns was up 20-18 on two scorecards heading into the third round.

Della Maddalena is the No. 5 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings heading into UFC 315.

We will have more on UFC 315 as fight night approaches. Look for UFC 315 results and reactions on fight night.