MVRV Spike Hints Bitcoin Market Could Be Heating Up

• Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio jumped 21.84% in 21 days, showing a shift in market sentiment and growing unrealized gains.
• Institutions and whales continue accumulating BTC, signaling strong confidence despite broader market uncertainty.

The average Bitcoin holder is smiling broadly right now. In just 21 days, they saw their unrealized gains jump to 21.84%. That’s not the result of idle speculation, but rather an on-chain metric called MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value).

On-chain analyst Carmelo Aleman says MVRV is one of the most accurate ways to gauge market sentiment directly from the blockchain. By comparing the current market price to the average price at which Bitcoin was last exchanged on the network, we can tell whether people are sitting on profits or are starting to bite their nails.

Rising MVRV Hints at Building Bullish Pressure for Bitcoin

Since April 8, 2025, Bitcoin’s MVRV has risen from 1.74 to 2.1199 as of April 29. Just imagine if you had bought Bitcoin at the average network price a while ago, you could be making a pretty penny right now without having to sell it yet. But don’t jump to conclusions too quickly.

Aleman points out that historically, MVRV values ​​between 3.5 and 4 have often marked market tops. So while the current figure is still below that, the rate of increase is starting to create bullish pressure that could heat up the market at any time.

Institutions Stay Confident as Realized Cap and BTC Holdings Surge

Interestingly, this isn’t the only sign that the market is alive. CNF also previously reported that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization hit an all-time high. This reflects that confidence—from both institutions and retail investors—is at an all-time high. Even options volumes are up, which means traders are starting to prepare for potential near-term volatility.

On the other hand, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is not deterred despite just posting its fifth consecutive quarterly loss of $4.22 billion. The reason? The decline in the fair value of their Bitcoin stack. But instead of backing down, they are getting more aggressive.

As of the end of April, Strategy held 553,555 BTC worth $37.9 billion, and has even announced its intention to offer $21 billion worth of shares to buy more Bitcoin. Crazy, right?

Furthermore, the US government has also taken part by creating a Bitcoin reserve from digital assets seized since March. While it may not immediately cause the price to jump, many analysts believe that this could be a trigger for institutional adoption in the long term.

Several states such as Texas and Florida have even begun considering creating their own crypto reserves. If this actually happens, the US could become the world’s largest Bitcoin holder—and that’s no small claim.

Not only that, in the past few weeks, Bitcoin has begun to show more stable performance compared to US stocks and the dollar. This occurs amid market turmoil due to President Trump’s trade policies that have made many investors hesitant.

Some observers are starting to look at Bitcoin as a hedge, a kind of “digital gold.” But don’t immediately label it as a safe haven either—BTC’s volatility is still too wild to be equated with precious metals.

And, oh yeah—earlier this month, whales were recorded to have accumulated 47,000 BTC at once in a single day. Meanwhile, as of press time, BTC is swapped hands at about $96,612.49, up 1.58% over the last 24 hours and 3.05% over the last 7 days.

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