Bitcoin Ends April Up 14%—Volatile May Kicks Off With FOMC Risk

• Bitcoin gained 14.5% in April, marking its strongest monthly close since April 2021.
• Historical data shows Bitcoin finishes May in the green 67% of the time with a 7.9% average return.
• Analysts warn the upcoming FOMC meeting and macro trends could add volatility to May’s BTC action.

April 2025 has officially wrapped up, and it turned out to be another impressive month for Bitcoin. The world’s largest cryptocurrency posted a +14.53% gain for the month, marking its strongest April performance since 2021 and a solid 29.29% increase compared to last year. While strong, the rally still trails past April breakouts like those seen in 2013, 2017, and 2020.

Many believe that recent news about Trump’s proposed tariffs played a role in fueling some of April’s surge. Now, as the market enters May, investors are asking the big question: Can Bitcoin keep this bullish run going?

What History Tells Us About May

Looking at the bigger picture, Q2 2025 is off to a strong start. Bitcoin has gained +14.53% in April alone, and so far, the second quarter is up +26.45% compared to this time last year — making it the best Q2 since 2021.

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Historically, May has been a mixed bag for Bitcoin. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has finished the month in the green 9 times and in the red 6 times. That gives the month a 67% historical chance of closing higher, with an average May return of +7.94%.

What Could Make May More Volatile Than Usual

However, this year could be different. Several major events are lined up that could make May one of the most volatile months yet for Bitcoin:

• Federal Reserve’s policy meetings and speeches could shift market sentiment. Any mention of a possible interest rate cut — or a surprise hawkish stance — could quickly impact Bitcoin’s price.
• The old Wall Street saying “Sell in May and go away” warns of market weakness during summer months. But some crypto analysts believe this advice may not hold true for Bitcoin this time around, especially with global money supply still increasing and more traders betting on a prolonged rally.

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One crypto analyst, Kaduna, said that while his plan was originally to reduce risk over the next two months, the continued growth in global money supply has made him rethink that strategy. He believes selling Bitcoin in May would be a huge mistake given the current market setup.

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaching and global economic uncertainty in the air, this week could set the tone for how Bitcoin behaves throughout May.For now, Bitcoin investors are watching closely to see whether May will continue the bullish trend — or if volatility will shake things up once again.