USD weakness in focus this week – DBS

The USD’s weakness will likely be a key topic at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governor Meeting on April 23-24 in Washington D.C., which will be part of the Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The Trump administration will hold high-level talks with Japan and South Korea on the sidelines, likely including discussions on the weakness of the JPY and KRW. Both countries will likely push back against perceived currency manipulation; Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was more vocal in emphasizing fairness in currency discussions.

Strong EUR pressures ECB as DXY wobbles before G20

“Japan and South Korea are treading a careful diplomatic line, offering incremental concessions to reduce or remove US tariffs on their imports without capitulating to all US demands and avoiding direct alignment with US efforts to economically isolate China. Japan and South Korea are increasingly seen as model cases for nations navigating the geopolitical and economic tensions between the US and China. Their ability to maintain security alliances with Washington while sustaining economic ties with China offers a playbook for other countries. ”

“Although the IMF is not anticipating a global recession, it will downgrade its global growth forecasts and warn that US-led prolonged trade tensions and policy uncertainties could lead to financial market stress, undermine investor confidence, and pose challenges to financial stability. Despite the darkest global economic backdrop since the global financial crisis, countries are divided at this week’s meetings.”

“The DXY Index’s fate hinges on its most significant component – the EUR. Having appreciated 10.5% ytd to 1.1440 this morning, EUR/USD faces major resistances near 1.15. The European Central Bank acknowledged the risks a strong EUR poses to inflation and growth. The Eurozone economy faces significant risks from a potential trade war with the US that threatens to overshadow the infrastructure and defence spending boost from the ‘Readiness 2030’ plan.”