Denver Nuggets Playoff Preview Vs. Los Angeles Clippers:

The Denver Nuggets are back in the playoffs for their seventh consecutive season, facing an overhauled version of a familiar postseason foe in the Los Angeles Clippers, who Denver knocked out in 2020 in a thrilling second round comeback from a deficit of three games to one.

The Nuggets’ upcoming playoff journey follows a tumultuous organizational upheaval which, with only three games remaining in the season, saw the firings of ten-year head coach Michael Malone – tied for the latest such ouster in a season in NBA history – as well as general manager Calvin Booth. Now led by interim head coach David Adelman, who has been with the team since 2017 but enters his first experience at the helm in the playoffs, the Nuggets are moving forward into uncharted territory, but with a renewed sense of hope and positivity after a trying year.

Three-time NBA MVP (and likely second-time runner up this time around) put in arguably the greatest individual offensive season in league history, becoming only the third player ever (and the only center) to average a triple-double, netting 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists on an insanely efficient 66.3% true shooting percentage, the highest in the NBA among players with at least 16 field goal attempts and four three-point attempts per Stathead. He also became the first player in NBA history to finish top three in the league in all three categories of points, rebounds and assists.

Nevertheless, Denver ultimately fell short of expectations due to factors such as injuries, the aforementioned discord in the organization, significant defensive regression, and a lack of depth to provide a floor when players had stretches of subpar performances.

Therefore, despite the fourth-seeded Nuggets having the homecourt advantage over the fifth-seeded Clippers, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have them as series underdogs, with the current line at Los Angeles -125, Denver +105 (although the Nuggets may prefer it that way, since they’ve traditionally enjoyed flying under the radar, as they largely did in their 2023 championship run).

While Denver’s high-altitude home at Ball Arena may provide them an edge when the series tips off on Saturday, momentum appears to be on the Clippers’ side as they finished the regular season with an NBA fourth-best net rating of +8.4 following the All-Star break, compared to the Nuggets sputtering down the stretch with below league average performance at an 18th-best net rating of +1.3, per Cleaning the Glass.

Under the new stewardship of Adelman, however, the Nuggets closed the season on a three-game winning streak following four consecutive losses and the big personnel shakeup, and they’ll be hoping this spark of reinvigoration will keep burning bright and help propel them through postseason success.

Three Keys For The Nuggets To Win The Series

Players Staying Healthy, Especially Jamal Murray

Beyond the turmoil created by the seasons-long tension and tug-of-war between Malone and Booth, which ultimately reached the boiling point resulting in their termination, the biggest obstacle to success which the Nuggets faced this season – their first since 2020 in which they did not improve on their winning percentage over the previous year – was a series of injuries to some of their key rotation players on an already depth-challenged roster.

Most notably, starters Jamal Murray (67 games) and Aaron Gordon (51 games), not only missed a big chunk of playing time (the two shared the court for only 1885 possessions this season, compared with 2553 last year), but in both cases their injuries were somewhat sporadic, and often left them hampered well below their peak health and conditioning levels even when they did play. Simply put, neither were their best selves for the majority of the season. Additionally, Peyton Watson, arguably Denver’s second-most important bench player after Russell Westbrook, also missed significant time.

History has demonstrated that a healthy, thriving, explosive Jamal Murray tends to be the key to Nuggets playoff success. Of course, Jokic, the consensus best player in the world, and Denver’s only contemporary All-Star during his tenure, is far and above the engine that drives the team’s overall success. But in the current uber-competitive NBA landscape, even he needs some help.

When Jokic has gotten the support he needs, as he did when Denver won their first title two years ago and Murray put in an outstanding performance through the playoffs of 26.1 points, 7.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds with a 58.6% true shooting percentage, the result was the Larry O’Brien trophy. When on the other hand his co-pilot has fallen short, as was the case last season (and in fairness, likely due at least in part to injury), with a line of 20.6 points, 5.6 assists and 4.3 boards on a meager 47.4% TS%, the Nuggets have fallen short, in that case leading to a second-round exit.

Even with Denver’s roster at full strength, Los Angeles has a clear depth advantage. The Nuggets will need all hands on deck, and in near-optimal condition, in order to weather that Clippers edge. Facing such a formidable foe, Jokic’s MVP heroics alone are unlikely to win Denver four out of seven games. The team will need major contributions from all other corners of the rotation, and good health is critical to facilitating that.

And for Murray specifically, facing a team with some daunting defenders such as Kris Dunn who will be doing everything in their power to make his life difficult, being in top form with some burst and quickness and power will be critical in getting to his spots and knocking down those tough, clutch daggers he’s built his playoff reputation on.

Rediscovering Defense, Particularly With Aaron Gordon And Christian Braun Guarding Kawhi Leonard And James Harden

In 2024-25, the Denver Nuggets had their worst defensive season of the Nikola Jokic playoff era. As the chart below shows, their defensive rating dropped into the bottom third of the league for the first time during that span.

The Clippers present Denver with a dangerous three-headed offensive challenge in a resurgent Kawhi Leonard, who looks his best form in years, the playmaking and scoring prowess (not to mention foul-baiting) of James Harden, and a surging Norman Powell, who is having the best season of his career and thrived as a starter when Leonard was out with injury.

Former MVP Harden and two-time Finals MVP Leonard present the biggest threats, and although Adelman has emphasized that the responsibility for slowing them down “will be a team challenge,” it’s likely that the lion’s share of guarding Harden and Leonard will fall on the shoulders of Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, respectively.

For his part, Gordon has faced off against Kawhi on many occasions, and has proven to be proficient in guarding him.

Gordon has the size to not get bullied by Leonard’s considerable strength, the lateral quickness to stay in front of him, and the experience to get a hand up and contest without fouling too frequently.

The bigger wildcard is Braun, who despite his stout defense and incredibly impressive ascension as a starting player in his third year (he’s more than doubled his per game scoring this season on far greater efficiency, and is a candidate for Most Improved Player), remains relatively inexperienced compared with Harden, a 16-year veteran and 11-time All-Star – and notoriously, one of the greatest foul grifters in NBA history.

Braun will have his hands full attempting to contain and slow down Harden while also staying out of foul trouble, especially given Denver’s relatively thin depth. Westbrook, Peyton Watson and (to a lesser extent) Zeke Nnaji are all candidates off the bench who can provide some defense, but considering that the Nuggets outscore their opponents by 13.8 points per 100 possessions when both Braun and Gordon share the court together, it is paramount they both avoid fouling and forcing Adelman to dig too deeply into a shaky bench.

Nikola Jokic Definitively Winning His Battle Against Ivica Zubac

Like his teammate Powell, Ivica Zubac is another Clippers player enjoying the best season of his career. Not only that, he’s widely expected to get a meaningful number of votes for both Defensive Player of the Year and has a great chance of making the All-NBA third team. It’s a known issue for the Nuggets that Zubac has been one of the more capable Jokic defenders in the league over the past several seasons, and beyond that, his offense has really blossomed into a more complete, harder to defend game.

Simply put, Joker will have his hands full in this matchup. It seems probable that Clippers head coach Tye Lue will start Zubac off guarding Jokic one-on-one, and hoping he can do a good enough job of limiting his scoring that Los Angeles can avoid the dangerous double-teams which open up playmaking opportunities for arguably the league’s best passer.

Jokic’s improved three-point shooting – he made the leap to shooting 41.7% from the arc this season, up from 35.9% last year and a prior 35.0% career average – should help on the offensive end of his matchup with Zubac. His perimeter threat has to be taken seriously, and if he can pull Zu out of the paint that should open up cutter and dunker spot opportunities for Braun, Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., as well as some high pick-and-roll action with Murray, who should cook if he gets that switch.

But Jokic may also need to just be the dominant bully he’s sometimes reluctant to be, and take it right at Zubac in the post to try to get him into foul trouble. Although Jokic’s Balkan counterpart been great at avoiding fouling when defending, getting opposing bigs into foul trouble, especially out of post-ups, is one of the tools in his war chest he often puts to good use, and should be worth trying.

Defensively, of course, he’ll have to avoid the same conundrum, as Zubac has emerged this season has a more proficient and diverse offensive threat than ever before.

The Biggest X-Factors

When considering X-factors for the Nuggets in this series, nobody stands out more blatantly than Russell Westbrook. Westbrook, a former MVP, nine-time All-Star and 17-year veteran has largely been a boon for Denver this season. His energy, ability to push the pace and vocal leadership helped infuse a spark of life into a team which frankly (and we now know more about why) seemed bereft of the joy its culture once thrived on.

That said, after a surprisingly promising start to the season which clearly exceeded expectations based on his previous performance with the Clippers (creating another subplot in this series), as the chart above shows, Westbrook’s efficiency has tapered off in the latter part of the season, with his field goal percentage dropping about seven points from 47.7% to 40.8%, his assists decreasing while his turnovers increased, and his plus-minus per game dropping 4.4 points from +1.3 to -3.1.

This is somewhat a function of Westbrook starting more in the first half of the season due primarily to injuries to Murray and Gordon. Before the All-Star break, he played about 62% of his minutes as a starter, but since then, that has dropped to about 41%.

The critical aspect of this, of course, is whether or not Westbrook was playing alongside Nikola Jokic, the rising tide that elevates every ship he shares the court with. In fact, the Nuggets have outscored their opponents by 9.7 points per 100 possessions in the 2798 possessions Westbrook and Jokic have been on the floor together, but have lost by 16.3 points when Russ has been on the court and Jokic on the bench – a staggering drop of 26 points.

This presents a challenge in that, with Murray healthy, Westbrook’s designated role is ostensibly backup point guard, which in typical Nuggets rotations usually has meant he’d be in at the start of second and fourth quarters when Jokic is resting.

One potential release valve for this is the emergence of second-year point guard Jalen Pickett late this season as a potentially viable – and in contrast to Westbrook’s volatility, steadier and more stabilizing – point guard option, albeit one with a grand total of 11 minutes of NBA playoff experience. But if Adelman can trust Pickett in limited minutes, it may allow him to handcuff Jokic and Westbrook together for the minutes Russ is on the court in hopes of optimizing his efficiency and limiting his mistake-prone tendencies.

The other honorable mention X-factor for Denver is Michael Porter Jr., who like Westbrook has also seen a drop in his production and efficiency late this season, particularly his three-point shooting, which fell from 41.7% to 34.6% after the All-Star break. The Nuggets desperately need him to spread the floor as a legitimate shooting threat to give Jokic and Murray room to operate. On top of that, MPJ will have a target on his back when the Clippers are hunting on offense, and he absolutely must step up his defensive game in order to both minimize Denver’s liabilities on that end of the court, and make it viable for Adelman to keep him on the game for offensive purposes.

Prediction

This series looks to be a tough, hard-fought battle on both sides, and it’s more than likely to go six or seven games regardless of which team emerges victorious. The Nuggets have the series’ best player in Nikola Jokic, while the Clippers are more star-studded across the board with a deeper bench. Denver has the homecourt advantage, but Los Angeles has been on fire.

That said, history has shown that the Clippers tend to flame out prematurely in the playoffs relative to expectations, and that unfortunately for Leonard, he has more often than not succumbed to injuries before being able to make deep postseason runs. These and many more question marks make this one of the more unpredictable of all the 2025 playoff series, but all things considered:

Nuggets in six.