Why stablecoins will delay Bitcoin’s breakout to $90K

• Stablecoin growth at a standstill signals low liquidity, reinforcing a risk-off sentiment across the market.
• Are traders waiting for clearer market direction?

The Stablecoins: Aggregated Market Cap Percentage Change metric tracks the net expansion or contraction in the total market cap of major stablecoins — including USDT, USDC, and DAI.

In short, offering a real-time proxy for system-wide liquidity.

In Bitcoin’s [BTC] context, this metric acts as a leading indicator of risk appetite and capital inflows.

A slowdown indicates a more defensive posture, with traders likely holding back from deploying capital into higher-risk assets.

While the aggregate stablecoin market cap has reached $209 billion, recent Glassnode data showed a decline in net position change. This withdrawal speaks of caution.

Hence, are Bitcoin traders hesitating to commit to a full-fledged bull rally?

Hesitancy in capital deployment

As per the chart below, the stablecoin supply continued to trend positively until press time, with the combined market cap of stablecoins reaching a new high. 

Additionally, the net position change remained in the green, signaling strong liquidity inflows. 

Source: Glassnode

Historically, Bitcoin’s bullish cycles have shown a strong correlation with rising stablecoin inflows. Why? It is a reflection of improving market risk appetite and growing sideline capital ready to rotate into volatile assets. 

Notably, during BTC’s breakout rally toward $100k, the net position change in stablecoins peaked at 13%, indicating that strategic capital was rotating out of stable havens, positioning aggressively into risk assets.

Hence, a classic hallmark of a risk-on regime in full swing. Currently, while the metric remains marginally positive at +1.67%, the lack of follow-through suggests risk aversion.

In other words, this reflects a reluctance by market participants to engage in aggressive capital deployment into Bitcoin at current levels.

Unless the Net Position Change breaks decisively above the +4% threshold, the bullish continuation thesis remains weak. 

Bitcoin’s upside capped by stablecoin liquidity drag

CryptoQuant data showed Binance held a 23.4% share of total BTC exchange activity at press time, accounting for approximately 113.2K BTC. 

This reinforces Binance’s continued dominance as a key liquidity venue. 

As illustrated in the chart below, Bitcoin price dips consistently align with sharp spikes in Binance outflows, highlighting episodes of order book stress and bid-side dominance. 

Source: CryptoQuant

With price levels around $84.5k, Binance has yet to register any material outflow response, indicating that latent supply remains on-exchange. 

When paired with diminishing stablecoin liquidity, this reinforces the prevailing risk-off sentiment in the market.

According to AMBCrypto, this suggests two critical implications: First, a Bitcoin market bottom is not yet established, and second, BTC’s upside potential remains restricted.

Consequently, further Bitcoin appreciation is contingent on a shift in macro sentiment and liquidity conditions. 

Until these factors realign, BTC’s resistance at $90k will likely remain unbroken, with continued pressure on the upside breakout.