- WTO reduces 2025 trade growth to -0.2% amid uncertainty.
- US tariff hikes could further dent growth by 1.5%.
- Economic uncertainty increases market volatility, including crypto.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) announced on April 16 that it has revised the global merchandise trade growth forecast for 2025 from 3.0% to -0.2%. The adjustment reflects increasing uncertainty, particularly from escalated US-China tariff tensions.
Trade policy uncertainty could deepen global economic challenges. Increased tariffs may dampen growth by 1.5% with potential ripple effects on asset markets.
WTO Lowers Trade Growth Forecast to -0.2%
The WTO has downgraded its 2025 global trade growth forecast, citing significant economic uncertainty. As part of this action, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted concerns regarding the potential impact of US-China trade tensions. The reduction to -0.2% from the prior 3.0% expectation indicates severe economic challenges for global markets.
Immediate effects could involve rising tariff-based economic pressures, which might cut up to 1.5% from growth if the US-administered tariffs are increased further. While an initial 90-day tariff pause offered some relief, ongoing uncertainty remains a significant obstacle to economic stability.
“I am deeply concerned by the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, including the US-China stand-off. The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily relieved some of the pressure on global trade. However, the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, WTO, WTO Press Release
According to WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa, “Our simulations show that trade policy uncertainty has a significant dampening effect on trade flows,” emphasizing the immediate risks to global markets. The lack of immediate crypto KOL responses to these macroeconomic updates suggests a measured approach as the community awaits further developments.
Crypto Markets Face Volatility Amid Trade Tensions
Did you know? In previous US-China trade tensions during 2018-2019, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced increased activity, demonstrating their potential as “safe-haven” assets amid global market uncertainties.
Bitcoin currently trades at $84,017.30, with a market cap of $1.67 trillion and a dominance of 63.26%, as reported by CoinMarketCap. Its 24-hour trading volume stands at $26.85 billion, down by 5.05%, with notable price shifts over recent months reflecting increased market volatility.
The Coincu research team highlights the potential for heightened volatility in crypto markets amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Historical patterns suggest that key cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may attract safe-haven interests, while DeFi tokens could face challenges with weakening risk appetites.
Source: https://coincu.com/332538-wto-2025-global-trade-forecast/