Analysts revise Nvidia stock price targets after H20 China ban

Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) crashed on April 16, following the announcement of a H20 chip export ban aimed at China. Per initial estimates, this could cause a $5.5 billion writedown in the chipmaker’s next quarterly report.

A day prior, NVDA shares closed at $112.20. By press time on April 16, Nvidia stock had fallen to a price of $104.69 in the pre-market trading session, with year-to-date (YTD) losses standing at 22.04%.

In the immediate aftermath of the announcement, several high-profile Wall Street firms have slashed their NVDA price targets.

Analysts are eyeing the $150-$160 range for Nvidia stock after export ban

Harsh Kumar, a Piper Sandler analyst, cut his 12-month price forecast for Nvidia stock from $175 to $150. Despite the price target cut, the researcher maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating. 

Piper Sandler found the export ban surprising, seeing as how the H20 chip was designed to meet export control restrictions. Kumar cited a drop in sales, as well as muted demand from China going forward, as the key drivers behind this decision.

Elsewhere, Raymond James researcher Srini Pajjurri also lowered their price target on NVDA shares from $170 to $150, while keeping a ‘Strong Buy’ rating. The analyst added that, while China accounts for roughly 14% of the chipmaker’s sales, the export restrictions aren’t entirely unexpected, and that Raymond James considers most of the risks already priced in.

Lastly, Bank of America’s Vivek Arya slashed his price target on Nvidia stock from $200 to $160, but kept a ‘Buy’ rating. The firm outlined two tariff scenarios — a moderate and severe one. In the first case, it expects to see the semiconductor company’s sales slip by 4% to 6% — in the latter case, it forecasts that sales could drop by 9% to 12%. In the modest scenario, BofA estimates that earnings per share (EPS) could see a 12% to 13% hit

With everything said and done, these are still quite bullish outlooks. Compared to current prices, Piper Sandler’ and Raymond James’ revised forecasts imply a 43.28% upside. The revised BofA price target implies a 52.83% upside.

Others will likely follow suit — the most reasonable expectation is that Wall Street will retain a bullish outlook for the long term, albeit with less projected upside.

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