Justin Steele’s Injury Could Accelerate Chicago Cubs Trade Plans

When Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele first went on the injured list with elbow tendinitis on April 8, there was some optimism that the injury might be minor and with that, hope that he could return to the mound after a minimal absence.

“We’re going to get some more opinions on it,” manager Craig Counsell told reporters just days before Steele shared that he would need season-ending surgery. “We’re kind of dealing with the same thing we dealt with last year and, for that reason, I think Justin wants to make sure, and we want to make sure, that we get the right information moving forward. So, he’s going to get another opinion and then we’ll go from there.”

The second opinion revealed that Steele needed surgery to repair damage to his flexor tendon and to address the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow. It is not clear whether he will need Tommy John surgery, and that will not be known until the time of his surgery.

“You feel for Justin, just the competitor he is. He wants to be out there,” pitching coach Tommy Hottovy told reporters on Sunday. “He wanted me to know from him and talk through it a little bit, and kind of talk through what options he had and what plans he had. That’s the kind of guy he is. He wants to respect the work we’ve all put in together. We’ve known each other for a long time now.”

This is a big blow to a Cubs team that has gotten off to a very good start. They are in first place in the National League Central with an 11-7 record, and they have the best run differential in baseball, at +43.

The Cubs are winning and scoring at this rate despite playing a very tough early schedule. They have series wins against the Dodgers, Rangers, and Padres in April, but the Cubs still have a lot of challenging series in the weeks ahead. They have been an early surprise this season, but losing Steele will make maintaining their winning pace a challenge.

In order to stay at the top of their division and win an NL Central title for the first time since 2017, there are two things that the Cubs need to do.

The first is to get Kyle Tucker signed to an extension. This may not seem related to Steele’s injury, but locking down Tucker for the long term will allow them to accomplish the second thing they need to do, which is to trade from their minor league depth to acquire a starting pitcher.

Without Tucker on the team past this season, the Cubs are going to need outfield depth from guys like Owen Caissie who are still in the farm system for 2026 and beyond. But if Tucker gets cemented as their right fielder for the next decade, top prospects like Caissie and Kevin Alcantara become useful trade pieces.

Reports have circulated that the Cubs and Tucker are discussing a possible 10-11 year extension ranging from $450-500 million, though there is some disagreement over whether or not these specific details are accurate. But if they are, this is a very doable contract for the Cubs, who have about $30 million in luxury tax room this year and are poised to see that number climb above $90 million next year, and one that would help convince Tucker to stick around because it is in line with the kinds of contracts and extensions other top-tier players are getting.

If that happens, then the Cubs are in a solid position to get aggressive on the starting pitching market, and do it early. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has suggested they go after Miami’s Sandy Alcantara, which would likely require that they dip somewhat far into their prospect pool, but Alcantara would be more than capable of filling the void in the rotation left by Steele.

Even if the Cubs don’t get quite this aggressive on the trade market, they almost have to swing a deal of some kind. There is some starting pitching depth within the organization that can help cover Steele’s spot in the rotation for some amount of time, but that is not a sustainable long-term plan. Not only will Steele be out for the rest of this season, but if he does need Tommy John surgery, then there is a chance he will miss a portion of 2026 as well.

Because of that, the Cubs are going to have to lead the trade market this spring and summer, and they may have to swing big and swing early in order to ensure they land the kind of arm the team needs. Justin Steele is still only 29 and even if Tommy John surgery is necessary, he will be a crucial part of the rotation for many more years. But in the immediate future of the 2025 season, the Cubs need to find a pitcher to replace him, and getting one in a trade is the best way to do it.