Cubs RF Kyle Tucker Biggest Beneficiary Of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Deal

The contracts at the mega-star level of the MLB player population continue to explode. The majority of free agent deals, especially on the pitching side, tend to disappoint clubs and their fans, but at the very top of the position player market, win-win situations abound. Sure, things can get dicey in the waning years of some of these decade-plus mega-contracts, but big production is often churned out for an extended period before then.

Obviously the Dodgers have set the standard in the last couple of offseasons, shelling out wads of deferred money to Shohei Ohtani and a wave of starting pitchers. But as this season opened, the two big names being watched were Blue Jays’ 1B Vladimir Guerrero and Cubs’ RF Kyle Tucker, who came over from the Astros in the offseason with one year of team control remaining.

The Blue Jays recently locked up Guerrero, 26, for 14 years and $500 million. The deal kicks in next season, and he will be paid over $40 million in both 2026 and 2027. His annual salary then gradually descends until it bottoms out at $29.5 million in his age 39-40 seasons in 2038-39.

Vladdy The Younger is one of the more dominant young hitters in the game today. He crushes the baseball, has power to all fields, and his average launch angle, like Juan Soto’s, actually has room for growth. It’s a scary thought, but there might be substantially more power upside in there.

There are some negatives, however. He isn’t exactly an athletic specimen, and his body might not age well. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera were likely better athletes as young men, and their offensive games dried up long before age 40. He brings very little complementary skill to the table – defense and baserunning aren’t exactly strong suits of his. He hasn’t been the most consistent player from year to year – he has amassed 17.1 career fWAR, with his seasonal marks bouncing wildly from 6.3 to 3.3 to 1.3 to 5.4 from 2021-24.

Now let’s talk about Tucker, who as the days pass becomes more and more likely to enter free agency this upcoming offseason. There are massive differences between him and Guerrero, but the financial outlays required to sign them up for the remainder of their respective careers are likely to be in the same ballpark.

Tucker doesn’t hit the ball anywhere near as hard as Guerrero. While exit speed isn’t everything, it’s probably the single most important thing. But that and age – at 28, he’s two years older than Vladdy – are the only two areas where Tucker doesn’t rate the edge.

The Cub right fielder is the poster child for the launch angle revolution. In 2024, Tucker ranked in the 99th percentile in fly ball rate and the 1st percentile in grounder rate among qualifying NL hitters. His average launch angle exceeded 21 degrees. I’m often very critical of hitters of this type, as they also often have stratospheric pop up rates, extreme pull tendencies and iffy K/BB profiles. Not this guy, though.

His pop up rate tends to be in the league average range, he uses the entire field, and his K/BB profile is pristine. He may not be a pure baseball-masher, but he’s an exceptional technician who hits the ball plenty hard enough.

And his game is so much more than that. He’s an average to slightly above average RF defender, and adds solid baserunning value. Did you know he has a 30-steal season under his belt? Even better, did you know that he is an 88.2% career basestealer (97 for 110)? That’s outlandish.

His career WAR total of 22.3 isn’t that much higher than Guerrero’s, and given the difference in age, you could argue that it wipes out Tucker’s slight advantage. But then you look at his extreme consistency from 2021-24 – especially in relation to the Blue Jay – and it makes you rethink things. Tucker has recorded between 4.2 and 5.0 fWAR per season over that span, pretty outrageous consistency. Given his torrid start this season, it appears almost certain that he’ll break out to the upside, just in time for a big payday.

I don’t believe that Tucker will be landing a 14-year deal from anyone – that would take him through his age 42 season. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see him meet or exceed that roughly $35.7 million per year standard set by Guerrero. Will it be the Cubs that lock him up? Will he become the Dodgers’ latest conquest? Perhaps the Yankees push their chips to the center of the table a year after losing Soto. Or one of the other cash-rich teams step forward. One thing is for certain – Kyle Tucker’s day is coming, and he is in the process of earning every penny of it.