Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin only 15% of the time

Almost a decade after its inception, Ethereum continues to chase its biggest competitor, Bitcoin, without ever consistently outperforming it. A recent analysis revealed that Ether has outperformed Bitcoin only on 15% of trading days since it entered the markets in 2015. This data sheds light on the structural difficulties of the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization.

Highlighting this disparity was the analyst James Check, who shared the data in a post on platform X on April 8. According to the findings, the relationship between the two assets has been favorable to Ethereum only in rare periods, mainly between mid-2015 and mid-2017, and subsequently in two brief phases between the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020. For the rest of the time, the dominance of Bitcoin has remained intact.

A declining relationship: ETH versus BTC

The key element of this evaluation is the ETH/BTC ratio, which measures the value of Ether compared to that of Bitcoin. Currently, this ratio has dropped to a five-year low, reaching 0.018 on April 9 according to TradingView data. To find such a low level, one must go back to December 2019, when Ether had fallen to $125 and Bitcoin was hovering around $7,000.

The decline in the ratio reflects a true collapse in ETH prices, which has wiped out seven years of gains. In the last 24 hours, the value has suffered an additional 10% loss, falling below 1,450 dollars, a price even lower than the peak reached during the 2018 market cycle.

According to CoinGecko, ETH reached 1,400 dollars in the early hours of April 9. In comparison, Bitcoin lost 6% on the same day, bringing it to 75,000 dollars—a level still 275% higher than the peak of the bull cycle seven years ago.

Concerns are growing within the Ethereum community

The disappointment is also felt among the most fervent supporters of Ethereum. Despite the love for the project, many are beginning to confront a difficult reality: that of stagnation. Web3 researcher Stacy Muur commented in a post on X on April 8 that, while loving Ethereum, it is evident how the number of active addresses on the network has remained practically unchanged over the last four years.

This data risks indicating a significant lack of organic growth, a factor that could explain ETH’s inability to regain ground compared to Bitcoin.

Hopes shift to layer-2

Despite concerns related to activity on the main network, some analysts remind that a significant portion of the traffic has shifted to second layer networks, known as Ethereum Layer-2. According to data provided by L2Beat, these scalable solutions are experiencing remarkable growth in terms of value locked on-chain, suggesting that the Ethereum ecosystem is indeed evolving, but in different directions.

This could represent a glimmer of hope for the asset, which continues to be a pillar of the decentralized finance world (DeFi), despite the falling price.

Technical supports: are we approaching a possible rebound?

On the technical front, some sector analyses offer a less dramatic reading. Based on fractal patterns observed in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the more optimistic observers believe that ETH is now at extremely oversold levels. This could indicate that the bottom is near, estimated around 1,000 dollars.

Such technical indicators suggest that a consolidation phase could precede a potential rebound. However, at the moment, the narrative is dominated by concern and the unfavorable comparison with a Bitcoin that continues to excel not only in performance but also in interest from institutional investors.

The identity in crisis of Ethereum

The general picture highlights increasing pressure on Ethereum. Despite its innovative architecture for smart contracts and the immense ecosystem that has resulted from it, after the initial enthusiasm, Ether seems to have lost part of its appeal.

To this is added a complicated relationship between the price of the native token and the actual adoption of the Ethereum platform. The slowdown in the number of active addresses, along with a growing perception of technological stagnation, risks further compromising the confidence of investors and users.

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Final Reflections

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Ultimately, Ethereum is at a critical reflection point regarding its direction. After nearly ten years of running, the power relationship with Bitcoin paints an unequivocal picture: 85% of trading days have seen the first crypto-asset dominate. The challenge for the future will be to reinvent itself or, at least, restructure, to return to competing more effectively in the market.

Eyes remain focused on Layer-2 solutions, on the possibility of a technical rebound, and on potential strategic moves that could bring Ethereum back to the forefront. But in the meantime, time is running out, and Bitcoin continues to accelerate.