Between March 24 and 25, a $7 million bet on Polymarket titled “Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?” saw its “yes” chance surge from 9% to 100%, raising concerns of potential market manipulation. The bet was resolved in favor of the “yes” outcome, despite Ukraine not having officially agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s deal concerning access to Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.
Allegations of UMA Whale Manipulation
Multiple users on social media platforms, including X and Reddit, speculated that the surge in the “yes” resolution was caused by a “UMA whale”—a large holder of Polymarket’s UMA tokens—casting a significant number of votes in their favor. The manipulation claims sparked outrage within the community, with some users urging others to stop betting on Polymarket due to concerns over unfair voting.
Polymarket’s Response and Commitments
In response, Polymarket acknowledged the controversy, admitting that the market had resolved against expectations. However, the platform emphasized that it would not issue refunds to bettors, asserting that it was not a “market failure.” Polymarket stated that it had been actively working with the UMA team to address the issue and prevent similar occurrences in the future, calling the situation unprecedented.
Editorial Team
Reporter at Coindoo
Source: https://coindoo.com/polymarket-investigates-alleged-governance-attack-on-7-million-bet/