Bitcoin Price at a Crossroads: Deeper Correction Ahead?

Bitcoin price sits at a critical juncture after a volatile week that saw prices swing between $80,000 and $95,000. At press time, price fell below the psychological support at $80,000.

Market analysts are closely monitoring several technical indicators that could decide whether BTC continues its push toward new all-time highs or faces a deeper correction.

According to CryptoQuant analysis, the long-term trajectory remains strongly bullish, with projections suggesting Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by 2026. However, short-term signals, including the Coinbase premium, CME gaps, and realized price metrics, paint a difficult picture for traders.

Technical indicators point to $90,000 test following CME gap formation

Bitcoin’s price action has created a notable CME gap that traders are watching as a potential short-term target. According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin opened at $82,110 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), with a gap forming up to the $86,000 level.

This technical pattern emerged after the CME closed at $84,665 on February 28, followed by a higher open at $95,000 on March 1 as Bitcoin’s price was rising.

The previous $10,000 gap that formed during this period was filled within just 19 hours, with Bitcoin’s price even dropping below the $84,665 opening level.

Based on this pattern, analysts expect Bitcoin will likely attempt to fill the current gap above within the next 1-2 days, potentially retesting the $86,000-$88,000-$90,000 range.

The 78,000-80,000 region currently serves as a support zone, providing a foundation for any potential upward movement. However, CryptoQuant cautions that filling this gap would not necessarily confirm a broader upward reversal.

$83,000 realized price level emerges as critical support threshold

Bitcoin faces an important test at the $83,000 level, which represents the realized price of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) aged 3-6 months. This technical level has implications for market direction, as it shows the average acquisition price of mid-term holders who entered positions during the late 2024 rally.

CryptoQuant analysis highlights the historical importance of this metric, noting that Bitcoin’s interaction with the realized price of 3-6 month UTXOs often determines whether the market continues in its current trend or reverses course.

When Bitcoin maintains support above this threshold, it typically signals strong market confidence and increases the likelihood of continued upward momentum.

The current test of the $83,000 realized price level presents two scenarios. If Bitcoin holds above this zone, bulls may gain confidence to push prices toward the CME gap targets around $90,000.

However, failure to maintain this support could trigger what analysts describe as a “shift in sentiment toward fear.” This could potentially lead to a distribution phase where short to mid-term investors sell their holdings.

Despite long-term bullish projections, the negative Coinbase premium since February serves as a warning sign for near-term Bitcoin price action. According to CryptoQuant, this metric has been “one of the most accurate signs of bull/bear market” conditions and currently sits in negative territory.

The Coinbase premium measures the price difference between Coinbase Pro (primarily used by U.S. institutional and retail investors) and Binance (which has a more international user base).

When Bitcoin trades at higher prices on Coinbase than on other exchanges, it typically shows strong buying pressure from U.S. investors, often considered a bullish signal. Conversely, a negative premium suggests weaker demand from this key market segment.

Analysts at CryptoQuant recommend a direct approach given this indicator’s current reading:

“Waiting until the premium is back to positive might be the safest bet you can make in trading.”

This suggests that despite other potentially bullish indicators, the absence of institutional demand in the Coinbase premium could limit upside potential in the immediate term.

This cautious short-term outlook stands in contrast to CryptoQuant’s longer-term price prediction of $180,000 by 2026.

The analyst notes that this forecast, which implies more than 100% growth from current levels, was made “a long time ago” and has since been validated by major banks that “have now started projecting price levels similar to, or even higher than, my forecast.”