Polkadot breaks above THIS major pattern – Will DOT finally rally to $10?

• Technical indicators suggest mixed signals, DOT looked bullish in the short-term and bearish in the long term.
• Increased network activity may be driven by Polakdot’s parachains rather than its native chain.

Polkadot [DOT] has caught the market’s attention following an 88.09% surge in trading volume and a slight price increase (0.45%).

As of this writing, Polkadot traded at $5.31 after breaking out of its falling wedge pattern formation.

Despite a high trading volume, DOT bulls must keep the uptrend momentum to confirm the breakout targeting the $10.31 key psychological level.

Falling wedge breakout: Will the bulls take charge?

DOT has been trading inside a bullish falling wedge pattern following a previous short-term rally.

Looking at the daily chart, the altcoin has gained a bullish momentum, breaking above the $5.0 key resistance level on its upper descending trendline.

DOT must sustain its bullish momentum to hit the $9.07 key resistance level. If the bulls hold past this level, Polkaot could target the $10.31 psychological level.

Failure to sustain above the falling wedge, a retest of $5.0 support and below is possible.

Source: X

According to Cryptowaves, Polkadot’s 24-hour RSI stood at 45.64 and rose to 56.81 in the 4-hour timeframe, suggesting increased buying pressure associated with its high trading volume. 

TradingView data on short-term moving averages (10-20 EMA/SMA) suggested bullish momentum while the mid-term and long-term MAs looked bearish, a sign of resistance ahead.

The 24-hour Long/Short Ratio of 2.64 confirmed the short-term bullish investor sentiment.

Source: Coinalyze

A look into the on-chain metrics

Coinalyze data reported a 6.7 decrease in DOT’s 24-hour Open Interest at press time.  According to DefiLlama data, Defi activity on Polkadot’s ecosystem is dominant on its parachains instead of the native chain. 

In late 2024 toward 2025, Polkadot’s ecosystem has seen moderate growth in active addresses compared to the earlier months. However, this month has seen them gradually decrease.

Source: TheBlock

So, what next?

Polkadot’s future relies on its entire ecosystem’s growth. The native token, DOT, will require strong buying pressure to maintain above the bullish falling wedge pattern in the next few weeks.

Investors may be eyeing DOT’s short-term gains while diversifying in its parachains as a long-term conviction in its ecosystem.