Bitcoin: Could Microsoft’s quantum chip affect BTC reserve plans?

• Utah’s Bitcoin reserve bill has progressed to the second Senate reading. 
• Microsoft’s quantum chip timeline of 2027-2029 could put BTC at risk sooner than expected. 

As plans for a Bitcoin[BTC] reserve gain momentum in the U.S., Utah has maintained the lead in the state-level Bitcoin reserve race after passing the Senate Committee.

According to Bitcoin Laws, Utah’s bill will now head for the second and third Senate readings, followed by a final vote.  

Source: Bitcoin Laws

The final step would be for the governor to sign it into law if it passes the remaining stages. Other states that have recorded progress on their respective BTC reserve bills include Arizona (AZ), Montana (MT), and Oklahoma (OK). 

Microsoft: Bitcoin quantum threat

If approved, the bills would allow states to diversify reserve assets while inheriting BTC’s volatility, risk, and potential gains.

A recent VanEck report projects that 20 states could drive at least $23B in BTC demand if their reserve bills are approved.

Besides, the asset manager estimated that a U.S. national reserve with 1M BTC would help clear about $21 trillion or 18% of U.S. debt by 2049. 

But BTC’s Quantum threat is back again. Given its relatively limited Qbits to crack BTC wallets, Google’s Willow quantum chip was downplayed as an immediate threat to BTC.

However, Microsoft’s CEO, Satya Nadella, believes their quantum chip could achieve one million Qbits by 2027-2029. That would be enough to crack BTC and most current cryptographic systems.  

According to BTC trading platform River, such a computer could take only two weeks to crack BTC wallets. So, when the quantum computer has 13-300 million Qbits, it could reduce this to about eight hours or less.

Simply put, the Bitcoin network should be quantum-proof before 2027, or 5.9M BTC could be at immediate risk, added River. 

“More realistically, we’d need a QC with 13-300 million qubits to carry out a long-range attack in 1-8 hours. If achieved, this would put 5.9 million BTC at immediate risk.” 

That said, there are already a bunch of proposals, including QuBit, to make the Bitcoin network ready for the post-quantum era.

However, it remains to be seen if the researchers can upgrade the network. Otherwise, it could impact states’ plans for a Bitcoin reserve, as the quantum chip may pose a threat to BTC.