Polymarket Sparks Debate with Bets on Fort Knox Audit as Gold Reserve Controversy Grows

As speculation intensifies over the integrity of U.S. gold reserves, Polymarket has launched two high-stakes prediction markets, fueling a broader debate on transparency in national asset holdings.

The crypto-powered betting platform is offering bets on whether the U.S. government will conduct an official audit of the Fort Knox gold reserves by May 2025—and, if so, what the findings might reveal.

The Fort Knox Betting Markets

Polymarket unveiled the Fort Knox prediction markets on February 17, allowing users to bet on the likelihood of an audit and the potential outcomes. At the time of writing, odds that an official audit will occur by the end of April 2025 stand at 54%, reflecting mixed sentiments about whether political and public pressure will be enough to force the first full inspection of the nation’s gold since 1974.

54% odds that DOGE will audit Fort Know before May, Source: Polymarket

The move comes amid growing calls for increased transparency. While Polymarket has seen surges in betting activity around major political events—such as the U.S. presidential election—this latest market taps into long-standing financial anxieties about the true state of America’s gold reserves. The question is only going to increase in intensity, as more people ask, does America have the gold it says it does?

15% odds that there is gold missing from Fort Knox, Source: Polymarket

Rand Paul and Glenn Beck Turn Up the Heat

The renewed push for a Fort Knox audit was reignited when Kentucky Senator Rand Paul called for an inspection on February 16. Just a day later, conservative commentator Glenn Beck sent an open letter to President Donald Trump, urging him to “restore full faith and credit” in the government by verifying its gold reserves.

Beck even proposed bringing a camera crew under strict security measures to document the presence of the gold, positioning this as a pivotal moment for Trump’s legacy of government transparency.

“This could be a defining moment in your legacy of fighting for transparency and putting America first,” Beck wrote in a letter shared on X.

Beck is calling on Trump to allow cameras inside Fort Knox to verify that the U.S. gold reserves actually exist. The last full audit was in the 1950s—before color TV, seat belts, or the internet.  Since then, all we’ve gotten is a 2017 visit where former Sec of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin peeked inside and tweeted, “Glad gold is safe!” LOL!

The letter, written by Glenn Beck and addressed to former President Donald Trump, makes a formal request for an independent audit of the United States’ gold reserves. Beck argues that a public verification of the gold reserves—held in locations like Fort Knox and Federal Reserve vaults—would restore trust in the U.S. financial system, counter conspiracy theories, and reaffirm public faith in government institutions.

Key Points of the Letter:

1. Emphasis on Transparency and Accountability

Beck praises Trump for valuing transparency and the right of the American people to know the truth about their government. He frames his request as an opportunity to reinforce these principles by allowing an independent audit of the nation’s gold reserves.

2. Lack of a Full Gold Audit for Over 70 Years

Beck highlights that while the U.S. is officially the world’s largest holder of gold, there has been no comprehensive independent audit in over seven decades. This long absence has fueled speculation and distrust, leading to conspiracy theories regarding whether the reserves actually exist.

3. Proposal for a Journalistic Investigation

Beck proposes bringing in a camera crew under strict security measures to document and verify the presence of America’s gold reserves. He insists that this would not be a publicity stunt but rather a serious journalistic endeavor aimed at restoring public confidence in the financial system.

4. Broader Implications of the Audit

Beck outlines several major benefits of confirming the gold reserves:

• Restoring Trust in the Monetary System: With rising inflation and discussions about digital currencies, proving the existence of the reserves would reinforce the strength and stability of the U.S. dollar.
• Shutting Down Speculation: Many, from Wall Street insiders to ordinary citizens, have questioned whether the gold is truly there. A transparent audit would settle these doubts and end decades of uncertainty.
• A Defining Act of Transparency: Beck argues that no administration has taken this step in nearly a century, and Trump could set a historical precedent by allowing the American people to see the reserves.

Beck acknowledges that national security considerations must be respected. He assures Trump that he is willing to operate within necessary security parameters to ensure the process is conducted responsibly.

Beck urges Trump to seize this opportunity to demonstrate his commitment to transparency, stating that it would solidify his legacy as a leader who stood against secrecy and unchecked government power. He expresses his willingness to discuss the matter further and work out the logistical details.

The letter is framed as a high-stakes appeal to Trump’s political identity—one focused on accountability, exposing corruption, and fighting against elite secrecy. Beck positions the gold audit as a historic move that could strengthen trust in the U.S. economy and government, offering Trump the chance to leave a lasting legacy of transparency.

Trump’s Silence and Musk’s Advocacy

While Beck and other voices on the right are pushing for an audit, Trump has remained notably silent on the matter. This is despite past comments that hinted at skepticism regarding America’s gold holdings. In a 2015 interview with WMUR, Trump stated, “We don’t have the gold. Other places have the gold.”

Meanwhile, billionaire Elon Musk, through his self-styled “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), has been advocating for the audit, fueling speculation that financial elites suspect something is amiss.

What If the Gold Isn’t There?

The prospect of an audit raises a provocative question: what happens if Fort Knox’s gold reserves—officially listed at 4,600 metric tons, worth around $430 billion—aren’t as they should be?

Skeptics argue that even if an audit does happen, the public may never get full disclosure on the results—further bolstering the case for state-backed Bitcoin reserves as an alternative to government-controlled gold holdings.

Gold on the Rise Amid Uncertainty

While debates over Fort Knox rage, gold prices have surged to historic highs, surpassing $2,940 per ounce last week. Goldman Sachs has responded to the rally by revising its year-end gold price prediction to $3,100, reinforcing its bullish outlook on the metal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Gold spot chart, Source: TradingView

The Verdict: A Real Audit or More Speculation?

Whether Polymarket’s bets will result in tangible action remains to be seen, but the buzz surrounding the Fort Knox audit underscores a broader issue: in an era of financial uncertainty, trust in centralized reserves is eroding. With high-profile figures like Musk and Beck weighing in, and Trump’s silence adding intrigue, the Fort Knox controversy is unlikely to fade anytime soon.

Regardless of the outcome, one thing is certain—when it comes to the true state of America’s gold, the public wants answers, and Polymarket is making sure they have a stake in finding out. Bitcoin? Or gold? Place your bets.