BTC Price: MACD Bearish Crossover Sparks Caution, Liquidity Piles Up

The MACD just had a bearish crossover on the weekly chart, a signal that has historically preceded significant corrections in Bitcoin (BTC) price.

Historically, bearish MACD crossovers on the weekly timeframe signaled downturns. Previous corrections of -49.78% (-$28,683.57), -44.21% (-$26,173.18), and -63.93% (-$27,459.95) followed such signals.

A similar pattern could emerge. Bitcoin is currently at $97,588.70, recovering from previous downturns.

However, if history repeats, a short-term pullback may occur.

A potential drop of 16.95% to 23.46% could be plausible. BTC price could consolidate before resuming upward momentum.

The recent rally suggests a bullish macro trend despite short-term risks. Investors should remain cautious but expect volatility.

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BTC Exchange Inflow/Outflow Ratio

Furthermore, the BTC exchange inflow and outflow ratio 30DMA entered the high demand zone, historically triggering Bitcoin (BTC) price increases.

In 2017, 2020, and 2023, BTC surged after the ratio dipped below 0.95. The current ratio sits at 0.975, signaling accumulation.

Bitcoin’s price is $97,588.70, recovering from corrections. If demand sustains, BTC could surpass $100K short-term.

Long-term, repeated demand zone entries aligned with bull runs. The 2020 dip led to BTC breaking $20K, and 2021 pushed it over $60K.

Failure to sustain demand may lead to stagnation.

BTC Liquidity Resting Above the Consolidation Zone

BTC liquidity is currently piled up above the consolidation zone, indicating potential resistance near $100,000 while Bitcoin stabilizes within a narrow range.

The heatmap revealed strong liquidity around $100,000, creating resistance. As of press time, BTC price traded between $95,000 and $100,000, struggling to break higher.

High liquidity zones historically acted as magnets for price movements. A breakout above $100,000 could trigger increased volatility and upward momentum.

Short-term, BTC price could retest $100,000 if buying pressure intensifies. Failure to break this level could lead to a drop toward $95,000 or lower.

Long-term, sustained accumulation near $100,000 may signal strong demand before the next leg up. A breakout beyond $105,000 could confirm bullish continuation.

Traders should monitor liquidity shifts and order book changes for breakout confirmations or potential reversals.

BTC Price and Weekly Returns

The 7th week posted a positive return of +0.33% in 2025, marking only the second time since 2013 this has occurred.

Historically, BTC saw an average 7th-week gain of +6.45%, with notable spikes like +18.06% in 2021 and +11.43% in 2023.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near $97,588.70, showing resilience. If history repeats, this could lead to a strong breakout.

Then, a potential push above $100K in the short term is possible for BTC price. Long-term, strong 7th-week performances have preceded bullish trends.

In 2013, BTC gained +11.04%, leading to a 52.28% surge in subsequent weeks. A similar move could set BTC up for an extended rally.

Failure to sustain momentum could lead to prolonged consolidation. Traders should watch for volume spikes and macroeconomic signals to confirm the breakout.