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Bitcoin Price Hovers at $95K Amid Critical Cost Basis Analysis – Experts Predict Volatility or Breakout

6 days ago
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The Bitcoin price remains a focal point for investors as it stabilizes near $95,000, a threshold analysts argue could determine its short-term trajectory. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s latest analysis of Bitcoin’s cost basis across investor cohorts has ignited debates about potential bearish signals or long-term resilience.

Bitcoin Price & Key Cost Basis Breakdown: Why $95K is Critical For Many Investors

Ki Young Ju’s February 19 tweet highlighted critical acquisition averages:  

  • ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89,000 (institutional entry point)  
  • Binance Traders: $59,000 (retail-heavy cohort)  
  • Mining Companies: $57,000 (historically a bear market trigger if breached)  
  • Old Whales: $25,000 (untested long-term support)  

This reveals institutional investors are closest to break-even, while mining firms face heightened pressure. A drop below $57K could signal a bear market, as seen in 2018 and 2020. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, doubled down on corporate adoption this week, stating, 

“Bitcoin’s scarcity and institutional demand will redefine global treasury strategies.”

Michael Saylor’s $2B BTC Purchase Plan

Adding to the bullish narrative is MicroStrategy’s CEO and long-time Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor’s announcement that reveals a plan to raise $2 billion to buy more BTC.

Saylor’s Bitcoin acquisition spree is a barometer to gauge corporate confidence in BTC & cryptocurrencies. His recent announcement reinforced the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a cornerstone of modern financial strategy, and it further adds credence to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve implementation.

Key BTC Price Levels To Watch

With Bitcoin price crashing below $95K and catalyzing a liquidation of $340M in 24 hours, the market seems to be flushed. Let’s look at key levels to watch from a short-term and long-term scenario. 

Short-Term Scenarios:

Deviation Below VAL of $93.3K:

  • Below the Value Area Low (VAL) of $93.3K suggests a sustained downtrend and a potential revisit of the established support level at $88.7K

Long Squeeze Target:

New All-Time High (ATH):

  • The $120K Bitcoin price target is a conservative estimate for a new ATH in the short term.
  • The $150K-$200K target is the optimistic scenario where market sentiment drives Bitcoin prices to higher levels.

Long-Term Scenarios:

Cycle Top Based on Mars-Vesta Cycle:

Worst-case/MaxPain Scenario:

  • Bottom Formation: $75K-$70K. If Bitcoin were to follow a pattern similar to the 2021 cycle, this range is suggested as a potential bottom, representing a significant correction.
  • Cycle Peak: $120K-$150K. This range is anticipated as the peak of the cycle in a worst-case scenario, suggesting a recovery after the bottom formation but not reaching the optimistic short-term targets.

Investors need to note that some of these levels coincide with the cost basis levels mentioned by the CEO of CryptoQuant, making them a key level to watch as Bitcoin price volatility increases.

The Bottom Line: Balancing Risk and Opportunity

While Bitcoin’s $95K cost basis tests investor resolve, long-term fundamentals remain strong. As Ki Young Ju notes, “Old whales at $25K show unshakable confidence,” while Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy continues accumulating BTC despite volatility. For traders, the $57K–$95K range is critical; for hodlers, the 2025 halving cycle and institutional tailwinds suggest upward momentum.

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Akash Girimath

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst & Market Strategist
Engineer-turned-analyst Akash Girimath delivers data-driven insights on cryptocurrency markets, DeFi, and blockchain technology for platforms like AMBCrypto and FXStreet. Specializing in technical analysis, on-chain analytics, and risk management, he empowers institutional investors and retail traders to navigate market volatility and regulatory shifts.

A hands-on strategist, Akash merges active crypto portfolio management with research on Web3, NFTs, and tokenomics. At AMBCrypto, he led cross-functional teams to redesign content frameworks, achieving record-breaking traffic growth through scalable editorial strategies. His analyses dissect market sentiment, investment strategies, and price predictions, blending macroeconomic trends with real-world trading expertise.

Known for mentoring analysts and optimizing workflows for high-impact reporting, Akash’s work is cited across global crypto publications, reaching 500k+ monthly readers. Follow his insights on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn for cutting-edge perspectives on decentralized ecosystems and crypto innovation.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.

Source: https://coingape.com/markets/bitcoin-price-hovers-at-95k-amid-critical-cost-basis-analysis-experts-predict-volatility-or-breakout/