Bitcoin increasingly treated as risk-on asset rather than pure store of value – Bitfinex

Bitcoin’s (BTC) market behavior continues to evolve, with recent trends suggesting it is being treated more as a risk-on asset than a traditional store of value, according to a new report from Bitfinex. 

Bitcoin’s price has remained in a consolidation range between $91,000 and $102,000 for over 75 days, reflecting declining volatility and increased market stability. 

The report highlighted that BTC’s correlation with equities has strengthened. At the same time, its relationship with gold has weakened, suggesting the crypto role as a risk asset instead of a store of value.  

Additionally, Bitfinex noted that Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments and reacts sharply to geopolitical events, including President Donald Trump’s recent imposing of new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.

Risk-on asset

Despite its positioning as “digital gold,” Bitcoin has not mirrored gold’s recent rally. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has strengthened, while its correlation with gold has weakened.

Bitcoin has yet to see the long-term institutional inflows that have driven gold’s price surge. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors have significantly increased gold holdings amid economic uncertainty, whereas Bitcoin remains primarily driven by speculative demand.  

Although the trading of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has contributed to their broader adoption, these investment instruments remain volatile. 

The report pointed out that Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold over $116 billion in assets under management, equivalent to 6.08% of Bitcoin’s total supply. However, ETF flows have been inconsistent, with significant outflows of $234.4 million and $140.2 million on separate days last week.  

In contrast, gold has benefited from structural buying, as investors seek hedges against inflation, economic instability, and the effects of Federal Reserve interest rate policies.

The Trump administration’s aggressive trade stance and ongoing fiscal expansion have further driven institutional allocations toward gold, solidifying its role as a defensive asset. However, unlike gold, which has benefited from defensive positioning, Bitcoin is still considered a high-beta asset.

Additionally, while treasury yields have declined, risk premiums have increased due to trade wars and political uncertainty in the US, contributing to continued volatility in equity markets. Bitcoin’s price movements have reflected these trends, further reinforcing its status as a risk-on asset rather than a stable store of value.

Long-term maturity

Despite this, Bitfinex acknowledged that institutional interest in Bitcoin is increasing, with approximately $196 billion worth of Bitcoin held by ETFs, nation-states, and public and private companies. 

This suggests that Bitcoin’s role as a long-term hedge against inflation and currency devaluation is still evolving.  

Furthermore, the report noted that Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility has reached an all-time low of 46%, signaling increased maturity. 

While macroeconomic headwinds may continue to impact Bitcoin in the short term, its fundamental investment thesis remains intact. The rising gold price, growing institutional interest, and declining volatility could eventually support Bitcoin’s transition toward a more established financial asset.

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