Ethereum at a crossroads: Can retail defy whale sell-off pressure?

• Ethereum has seen larger-than-usual aggressive sell orders, alongside an increased number of aggressive buy orders.
• The bid-ask spread analysis revealed notable fluctuations across different exchanges.

Since December 2024, Ethereum [ETH] has been navigating through some distinct market dynamics.

A notable pattern has emerged, characterized by an increase in aggressive sell orders from large investors, alongside a noticeable surge in buy orders from retail investors.

These trends signal an evolving market condition that might shape the price action of Ethereum.

A tale of two forces

Since late 2024, Ethereum has seen larger-than-usual aggressive sell orders, as shown by the average market order size, which highlights the activity of whales.

Source: TradingView

Simultaneously, the number of aggressive buy orders have increased, indicating higher retail participation in the market.

This suggests that whales might be offloading their holdings, potentially due to profit-taking or risk mitigation, while retail investors, driven by FOMO (fear of missing out).

Such activity has the potential to exert downward pressure on ETH’s price due to the large sell orders, but the increased retail buying interest could balance the market and even drive price increases if buying momentum persists.

What’s driving Ethereum’s movement?

Upon analyzing the Fear and Greed Index and the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) chart, a clear negative CVD trend emerges, showing that more selling pressure is entering the market than buying.

Source: TradingView

Such market conditions suggest that while the price could face downward pressure from the aggressive selling by whales, the neutral or slightly bullish sentiment from retail investors may prevent a sharp decline.

This could potentially stabilize ETH’s price or leading to a slight recovery phase.

Uncertainty or opportunity?

The bid-ask spread analysis revealed notable fluctuations across different exchanges. Wider spreads, typically indicative of lower liquidity or heightened volatility, are evident during certain spikes in the data.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Also, the wider spread often leads to higher trading costs for retail investors, potentially discouraging further purchases and reinforcing the bearish tendencies created by whale sell-offs.

This increased cost of trading could ultimately weigh on retail participation and contribute to the ongoing scenario where retail buying struggles to counteract the sustained sell-off from whales.

Shifting market sentiment

The volatility chart highlighted a downward trend since mid-2023, with occasional spikes in volatility. The decrease in volatility suggests a more stable market, but recent slight increases indicate growing market tension.

Source: IntoTheBlock

This heightened volatility may reflect the ongoing conflict between aggressive whale selling and retail buying. It could be a precursor to potential price swings, as market participants adjust to these new dynamics.

What’s next for ETH?

Given the current market conditions, the Ethereum market seems poised for a period of consolidation.

The neutral reading from the Fear and Greed Index suggests that neither extreme fear nor euphoria dominates the market, which could lead to more cautious and balanced trading behavior.

If the retail buying volume continues to rise, we might see ETH’s price stabilize or even experience a modest rally, counteracting the selling pressure.

Read Ethereum’s [ETH] Price Prediction 2025–2026

However, if whale selling persists without sufficient retail buying to match it, Ethereum’s price may face additional downward pressure, possibly leading to further declines.

Ethereum’s price action remains influenced by divergent investor behaviors, as whale sell-offs clash with retail buy-ins. The market appears to be at a crossroads, with both sides asserting their influence on price dynamics.