TON Crypto Enters Buying Zone: Risk Metric Hitting Low, Why?

Toncoin (TON) crypto is embarking on a pivotal market cycle. It has entered the buying zone at an NRM of 0.18, among the lowest investment risk levels. Under the present conditions, TON is another lower-risk investment opportunity supported by previous performances.

The NRM has visited each low-risk zone, only to be followed by significant midterm market reversals. Whether these reversals manifested themselves as price stabilization or outright rallies, this metric’s consistent performance over time speaks to its reliability.

A shakeout below the 0.2 threshold, below which market volatility is reduced and accumulation is heightened, is often a harbinger of stock recovery and/or a bullish trend.

Looking at the charts, we can see how TON’s price has reacted to the dips in the NRM in the past. Similar lows occurred at price troughs in past cycles, as we start to see mid-term uptrends. For anyone considering joining TON, the metric indicates a window of opportunity.

Open Interest Delta Recovery: A Shift in Sentiment

TON’s dramatic shift in its open interest delta (OID) throws more fuel on the bullish case. The OID has recently been improving; over the past few weeks, it has risen from intensely bearish -100M to much improved -15 M. Trump’s shift comes as traders have closed out previous short positions dominating the market. Transitions such as these are usually early signs of a market moving toward neutrality or positivity.

Knowing how open interest relates to price action is key to understanding market dynamics. Market participants may raise their confidence when open interest goes from negative into neutral or positive territory. However, in TON’s case, this recovery of open interest also suggests a stabilization of bearish momentum and may set up the basis for a rebound in price.

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The chart below shows this recovery because green bars represent positive open interest. That said, a move away from red, bearish dominance is good news to TON, signaling a shift in market conditions that may soon favor buyers.

TON Crypto Historical Trends Provide Insight

The NRM and OID have, in fact, been effective in measuring the TON crypto market cycles. By studying the interplay between those metrics, we can understand where TON stands in its broader evolution. As reported above, traditionally, low risk, as reflected by the NRM. A rise in open interest tend to precede bullish reversals or a price recovery.

It is used for a case study from mid‑2023 to early 2024. When that was the case, the NRM dipped into the buying zone, and thereafter, open interest transitioned out of the red and into the green. The confluence of these factors caused a pronounced recovery in the TON price, confirming the predictive power of these metrics and making forecasting another explosive rise unlikely.

Now, in early 2025, TON is at a similar juncture. Past performance does not indicate future results, but the fact that these metrics align again suggests a potential turning point for the asset.