Here’s Why the Bitcoin Bull Market is Still Intact According to Glassnode

The Bitcoin bull market is still intact despite its correction from the 2024 all-time high, according to prominent crypto analytics platform Glassnode.

Over the past month, the crypto market has been thrown into uncertainty as Bitcoin retreated from fresh all-time highs of $108,000 to trade below the $90,000 level at one point. Amid the correction, the big question has been whether the bull market is already over. However, according to a prominent crypto analytics platform, the answer to this is a firm no.

Bitcoin Bull Market Intact

Bitcoin’s bull market is still intact despite its correction from its $108,000 all-time high, according to prominent crypto analytics platform Glassnode.

The firm expressed this view in a report released on Wednesday, January 15, citing the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) Z-score optimized to a 1-year rolling basis to identify pivot points in the near term.

The MVRV measures the market value of Bitcoin to the price at which coins were last moved to identify price extremes. However, the MVRV Z-score measures how many standard deviations the MVRV is from its historical mean. 

Dialing this down to a 1-year rolling basis, Glassnode finds that Bitcoin tends to peak 2 standard deviations above the mean and remains bullish as long as it trades above the mean. Conversely, the firm notes that trading below the mean and near 1.5 standard deviations below the mean often signals a bear market.

Glassnode found that the mean MVRV Z-score corresponded with the $91,000 price point while noting that 2 standard deviations above it corresponded with $113,000 and 1.5 standard deviations below aligned with $75,000.

With this, the firm argued that Bitcoin, presently trading at $99,000, was still in bullish territory.

Further, the firm argued that there was little distress in the market judging by the degree of unrealized losses held by market participants. Per the data, only between 2 million and 3.5 million coins are in loss compared to early bear markets that typically see 4 million to 8 million coins in loss. 

Still, Glassnode points out that there may be a risk of a near-term sell-off if the price trades below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis or near this level for a long time as unrealized losses are concentrated among these holders, making them most likely to sell in times of market uncertainty. Glassnode put this STH cost at $88,400, with BTC currently trading for $98,163.