Nate Geraci Issues Epic Spot Bitcoin ETF Prediction: Details

Nate Geraci, the president of the ETF Store, has dropped an epic prediction concerning spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Geraci’s prediction comes amidst the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin ETF Rapid Growth Challenges Gold’s Decades-Long Dominance

In a post on X, Geraci highlighted the possibility of spot BTC ETF hitting a significant milestone before 2024 rolls away.

Geraci’s prediction relies on the remarkable surge in inflows in the ETF market within the past couple of weeks. He foresees the spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassing physical Gold ETFs in days.

Such an occurrence will mark a major achievement given the historical context of both assets.

Notably, physical Gold ETFs have been around for about 20 years. Gold ETF products are widely adopted and considered a mature investment vehicle for institutional players.

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Conversely, spot Bitcoin ETF are relatively new and would clock one year by January 2025. Hence, despite their young age, they have witnessed massive adoption as an asset class.

The spot Bitcoin ETF has exposed institutional players to BTC without directly acquiring it.

According to Geraci, the possibility of BTC ETF flipping gold depends on several factors.

If Bitcoin sustains its current price momentum relative to gold in the next 14 days, it could surpass the Gold ETF.

Similarly, if Bitcoin’s price should experience a surge while gold’s price declines, this could also accelerate the shift. Notably, this move might further fuel investors’ interest in Bitcoin ETFs.

Although Geraci refuses to call it, he insists that the market appears to favor Bitcoin ETFs flipping Gold ETFs. The timeline is even more ambitious.

If achieved, this could mark a notable shift in asset investment trends. It will also indicate how quickly the crypto market evolves despite regulatory delays and pushbacks.

Institutional Demand and Supply Dynamics Set the Stage

In less than one year of its launch, the total assets under management (AUM) for the Bitcoin ETF crossed $100 billion.

This massive influx is largely driven by all-year-round inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT remains the leading product with massive inflows.

It has maintained a streak of positive flow throughout this month, crossing the 500,000 BTC AUM milestone.

According to Farside Investors data, the only exception occurred on December 11, when it recorded zero flow.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council puts the current Gold ETF market size at $274 billion.

However, Gold ETF products have suffered significant outflows for the first time in six months. Ultimately, this could impact its overall standing by the end of 2024.

Despite this outflow, the gap between the two assets has closed rapidly.

Can Bitcoin ETF Flip Gold ETF?

The growing institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETF products has supported the recent growth in BTC prices.

Interestingly, there has been a surge in the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges. This is fueled by the growing demand for Bitcoin ETFs and accumulation by corporate bodies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, among others.

Analysts say this outflow is sparking a liquidity crunch. Notably, a tight Bitcoin supply has the potential to set the stage for a price rally.

If Bitcoin’s price surges amid increased demand from institutional players, BTC ETF may also easily flip Gold ETFS.

As of this writing, BTC price was trading at $101,577.02, representing a 0.58% increase in the last 24 hours. This pegs its market cap at over $2 trillion, this pales compared to Gold’s $29 trillion capitalization.