Here’s What Could Confirm a Market Cycle Top for Bitcoin, According to Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says there’s one indicator that could signal the end of the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market in the future.

In a new strategy session, Cowen takes a look at the MVRV Z-score, which compares the market cap of BTC to the value of each coin the last time it was moved to gauge whether Bitcoin is undervalued, overvalued, or at fair value.

Cowen notes that in the past, market cycle tops have occurred when the MVRV Z-Score hits a certain range.

“Historically, market cycle tops for Bitcoin have corresponded to an MVRV Z-Score somewhere between seven to 10, at around seven to 10.

In fact, the first cycle top, the MVRV Z-Score topped out at around 7.68. The last one topped out at around 7.15.

And you can see the ones in between went even higher.

Again, right now, the MVRV Z-Score high for this cycle is 3.29, but this is another metric that certainly could be useful in helping to confirm whether a high corresponds to a market cycle top or if that true euphoric sentiment is there, or if we just think it’s there. 

That’s kind of the thing about back in March 2024, it felt like the market was overheated, and it was, we got a mid-cycle top. But, a look at this chart would have helped to suggest that it was not in fact, a market cycle top.

So I do think this is another chart that we can put in our toolkit to help us better navigate Bitcoin.”

At time of writing, BTC is trading at $96,253.

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