On-Chain Analysis Identifies Key Factor Preventing Bitcoin Breakout to $100K

As Bitcoin faces bearish pressure on the path to its next milestone, on-chain analysis has identified one reason behind its inability to reach the level.

In Bitcoin news today, BTC’s recent price action has been nothing short of remarkable, especially as it approached the $100,000 mark. Despite reaching a peak of $99,800 on Nov. 22, the leading cryptocurrency failed to breach the psychological milestone, correcting slightly since then. 

Heavy Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders

Several on-chain indicators and expert analyses suggest the reasons behind this resistance. A recent commentary from on-chain analyst Checkmate revealed a major factor in Bitcoin’s struggle to surpass $100,000: heavy profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs). 

Over the past 30 days, LTHs offloaded $60 billion worth of Bitcoin, marking the heaviest distribution of the cycle. This selling pressure accounted for 21% of the total LTH distribution since the market bottomed out after the FTX collapse.  

The analyst stressed that such profit-taking is a natural part of Bitcoin’s market design. Adam Back, Blockstream’s co-founder and CEO, replied in agreement, pointing out that the selling activity dampens upward momentum, preventing Bitcoin from capitalizing on its current supply squeeze. 

i do not understand what those lettuce 🥬hands are thinking at the beginning of a bull-market. but clearly someone is selling or we’d blow past $100k already with the supply squeeze.

— Adam Back (@adam3us) November 24, 2024

He expressed surprise at the timing, noting that such moves often occur later in bull markets rather than at the start. However, Back emphasized that this selling pressure has prevented the push above $100,000.

Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Profit-Taking 

Notably, data from CryptoQuant further supports the notion that profit realization is playing a critical role in Bitcoin’s near-term resistance.

A previous analysis pointed to the Short-Term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures profits taken by investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Historically, a 30-day moving average SOPR value of 1.02 signals the start of profit-taking during bullish trends.  

Currently, the SOPR has reached this level, coinciding with Bitcoin’s correction from its peak. This pattern syncs with past market behavior, where short-term selling pressure resulted in temporary price pullbacks. 

However, the report noted that strong capital inflows could offset this trend, potentially pushing Bitcoin beyond $100,000 despite the profit-taking headwinds.  

Bitcoin’s Speculative Demand  

While profit-taking remains a headwind, other metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory still has momentum. 

According to another report on CryptoQuant today, speculative demand is on the rise, driven by FOMO, as investors anticipate a breakout above $100,000. This growing demand has led to an increase in the short-term supply of Bitcoin, further bolstering the asset’s price momentum.  

The analysis pointed out that short-term holders (STHs) have not yet reached the peak selling levels observed during Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $72,400. This suggests that while some profit-taking is occurring, there remains room for additional price growth.

At press time, Bitcoin changes hands at $97,314, down 0.34% over the past 24 hours. Despite the recent pullback, BTC still boasts a 6.24% gain in the last week, and an impressive 43.5% increase since Nov. 5.