Prelim PMIs on tap today – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) remains better bid overnight. DXY was last above 107, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact

“Escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine was one of the major drivers. Elsewhere, US data was mixed as existing home sales and jobless claims came in better than expected while Philly Fed business outlook slumped. On Fedpseaks, Goolsbee said he sees interest rates moving ‘a fair bit lower’ over next year.”

“Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Bearish divergence on daily MACD observed. We are still not ruling out the risk of technical retracement lower. Resistance at 107.40 (2023 high). Support at 106.20, 105.60 (76.4% fibo) and 104.50/60 levels (21DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low).”

Day ahead watch Prelim PMIs, Uni of Michigan sentiment data (tomorrow) before core PCE (next Wed). Firmer prints may add to USD strength while softer print should keep a leash on USD bulls.”