Progress on inflation appears to have stalled

Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman hit newswires on Wednesday, cautioning that it appears the Fed’s progress on taming inflation may have hit a snag.

Key highlights

Progress in lowering inflation appears to have stalled.

I am pleased that the November Fed policy statement provided optionality in deciding future policy adjustments.

I agreed to support the November Fed rate cut as it aligns with my preference to lower rates gradually.

My estimate of the neutral policy rate is much higher than before the pandemic.

The Fed may be closer to the neutral policy rate than policymakers currently think, inflation remains a concern.

The US central bank should pursue a cautious approach on monetary policy.

The unemployment rate is below my own estimate of full employment, the rise this year reflects weaker hiring.

Sideways move in Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation since May reflects increased demand for affordable housing, and inelastic housing supply.

The economy is strong, the labor market is near full employment, and inflation is elevated.

I see a greater risks to the price stability mandate, though deterioration in labor conditions is possible.

The October payrolls likely rose at the recent average pace after accounting for hurricanes, Boeing strike, and the low response rate.

It’s concerning we are recalibrating policy but haven’t reached the inflation goal.

The Fed needs to be flexible.